Bitcoin is advancing, imperturbable, flirting with the $ 110,000. The upper dynamic seems unstoppable, but below the surface, the signals are multiplying. Tracking liquidity, extreme euphoria, macro tensions: this week may well be that of crossing … or false departure.
In short
- Bitcoin flirts with $ 110,000, but a false break around $ 105,000 remains a credible scenario.
- The technical signals are bullish, supported by a very favorable macro context according to Ryan Lee.
- Despite the enthusiasm, the market shows signs of overheating with a risk of Squeeze shorts to come.
Bitcoin: the shadow of a false break at $ 105,000
After a new weekly record at $ 109,240, Bitcoin having exceeded 2000 billion valuation gives the impression of rushing towards the summits. However, under this apparent calm, a trap may well close around $ 105,000.
This level is not trivial: it concentrates a zone of strong liquidity and coincides with the exponential mobile average 50 days. To trader CRYPURVOthe scenario is clear:
The main level of liquidation is at $ 105.2K. A false break towards this area, in confluence with the 1D50EMA, would be a good entry point. »»
The market makers love this kind of movement: trapping the too confident bullish, liquidate buyers on margin … then reverse the trend brutally. At this stage of the cycle, caution is a competitive advantage.
Historical and favorable macro wind fence
The crossing of the last weekly resistance Place Bitcoin in the price discovery zone. The technical signals are clear: buyers hold the handle. But it's not just a matter of graphics.
The macroeconomics give an accelerator to the bullish momentum. The records of American actions, the weakening of the dollar and aggressive budgetary policies all play in favor of risky assets. And Bitcoin takes full advantage of it.
This is what Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research: underlines:
The rise in Bitcoin, which reaches around $ 109,000, very close to its historic record of $ 112,000, relies on solid favorable macroeconomic winds. The record performance of American actions, a strong increase in money supply and an expansive budgetary policy, in particular via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act law, are the main engines.
Clearly: the environment is almost too perfect. And that's where the risk is nestled.
Funding rats, liquidity, feeling: attention to overheating
The derivative market sends a contradictory message. While the price of Bitcoin climbs, the financing rates on Binance are retreating, translating an increasing skepticism. More and more traders are betting on an imminent reversal.
This disalcher opens the door to a possible Squeeze shorts. In other words: open sellers are likely to be crushed if the price exceeds $ 110,000 with force. This kind of movement can project the BTC far beyond the expectations temporarily.
But the Fear & Greed index shouts the alert: investors are in great greed. The exuberance rises, the lucidity retreats. A typical short -term summit configuration.
Bitcoin may be $ 2,000 in a new High All-Time. But in this kind of configuration, the most beautiful flights often come after a last jolt. The level of $ 105,000 could be this brutal, brief, and beneficial shock.
For those looking for a strategic entry point, it is better not to run after the price. For the others, it's time to lock your profits. Arthur Hayes expects a fall around $ 90,000 before an X10 rally.
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