Bitcoin at 126K? In reality, it never exceeded $100,000

We shouted for the record. The networks went up in flames. Bitcoin would have exceeded $126,000. A historic summit? Not so fast. This raw, unfiltered figure hides a much more nuanced reality. Galloping inflation, monetary erosion, and financial optical illusions have blurred the benchmarks. To believe that BTC has crossed this symbolic milestone is to ignore that in the current economy, the dollar is no longer worth what it was. And behind the numbers, there is the story that we too often forget…

The false peak of $126,000: when inflation catches up with the story

Has the price of BTC really crossed the mythical threshold of six figures? Not if you adjust for inflation. Alex Thorn, analyst at Galaxy, recalls that the peak of $126,000 in October 2025 is equivalent to actually at 99,848 dollars in constant 2020 dollars.

Its analysis is based on the CPI, an index which reflects the progressive loss of purchasing power of the greenback. And this shift is far from negligible: the value of the dollar has fallen by 20% since 2020. The problem is that the media economy operates with raw figures. And algorithms love that.

Thorn summarizes his thoughts in a tweet that went viral:

If you adjust the price of bitcoin for inflation using 2020 dollars, BTC has never exceeded $100,000. It actually peaked at $99,848 in 2020 value, if you can believe that.

The economy is distorting, but the comparisons remain frozen. Bitcoin is climbing, of course, but in an environment where fiat currency is crumbling, nothing is so simple.

Crypto domestication: Bitcoin versus the tools of the old world

By reintroducing macroeconomic tools into crypto analysis, are we not betraying the original spirit of BTC? Inflation, real comparisons, seasonal adjustments… This is precisely what Bitcoin wanted to escape when it was born.

On X, BitKane does not hide his skepticism :

If we start looking at the price of bitcoin from an “adjustment” perspective, aren't we just recreating the same system? By thinking in terms of seasonal adjustments, are we not becoming the new central bankers?

This unease raises a deep tension: between purists, who see bitcoin as a tool of resistance to institutional economics, and those who campaign for its integration into macro logics.

This debate goes beyond BTC alone. Ethereum, with its increasingly institutional rollups, or stablecoins backed by state currencies, reflect this same dynamic. The entire ecosystem seems to be moving towards a more structured, less rebellious model.

Inflation economics: normalization accelerates

It's not so much bitcoin that's soaring, but rather the dollar that's wavering. This troubling observation, but it is unavoidable in an economy shaken by cumulative inflation of 24% between 2020 and 2025.

Alex Thorn goes further. For him, the year 2026 promises to be too chaotic to be predictable. Still, Galaxy maintains a long-term bullish view, believing that bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027driven by the growing institutionalization of the market.

BTC is becoming more mature, its volatilities are leveling out, its options are diversifying. Even its “volatility smile” aligns with that of raw materials. Everything seems to indicate that the crypto economy is becoming structured.

But in this quest for recognition, the risk is great: that of trading freedom for integration. When records are read without filter, we forget that real value is built with context, not just with spectacular peaks.

What the numbers don't always say

• Bitcoin's peak in 2025: $126,000 (nominal);
• In 2020 value: $99,848;
• Cumulative inflation 2020–2025: +24%;
• Purchasing power of the dollar: −20% since 2020;
• Current BTC price: $87,320.

Some people will continue to believe in it. For them, Bitcoin has crossed the symbolic bar. No matter the adjustments. And despite doubts, a fringe of enthusiasts are already projecting BTC to reach $180,000 by 2026. The economy divides. The numbers too.