While Bitcoin oscillates around $ 82,000, a question burns the lips of investors: has the king of the cryptos finally found his floor? John Bollinger, legend of technical analysis and creator of eponymous bands, brings a glimmer of hope. According to him, the technical signals suggest a rebound scenario. But prudence: behind this attractive perspective hide traps to decipher.
Bollinger strips and %B: the W which intrigues
On the weekly graphics of the BTC, a familiar silhouette is emerging: a dual hollow in the shape of W. For Bollinger, this configuration is a historic bullish reversal marker. The %B indicator, measuring the position of the price compared to the bands, plays a key role here. When its value dives under zero before going up, then retests this level without breaking it, the W mechanics engage.
A scenario awaiting confirmation. Currently, Bitcoin caresses the lower strip, but the central mobile average (20 periods) resists. “The W is there, but validation is missing,” says Bollinger.
In other words, as long as the course does not cross the median SMA – located around $ 85,000 – doubt persists. Buyers remain in ambush, scrutinizing each movement.
The weight of correlations. In the shadows, another index troubles water: synchronization with the equity markets. The S&P 500, like Bitcoin, sails near its occurrence levels.
Jurrien Timmer (Fidelity) notes that the flagship index has touched two standard deviations under its trend, a rare signal but not yet extreme. For the BTC, this symbiosis means increased dependence on the upheavals of Wall Street.
Nasdaq -10%: The trap to avoid for Bitcoin
If Bollinger bands sketch a possible reversal, the macroeconomic context could spoil everything.
Timothy Petersonspecialized economist, alert: “Bitcoin has anticipated the drop in Nasdaq. But to bounce back, he will have to wait for American techs to touch their background. »» A scenario that would imply an additional 10% fall for the index, according to its models.
$ 70,000: the psychological threshold? Analysts converge on this level, a mixture of technical support and market psychology.
Timothy Peterson recalls that in this stage, the historical probabilities give 95% chance that Bitcoin stabilizes his fall. But beware: this threshold also acts as a liquidity magnet, attracting stop-loss orders and amplifying volatility.
Peterson underlines an unknown mechanism: Bitcoin, perceived as the most risky asset, reacts after the actions indices. Clearly, the Nasdaq must first show signs of remission so that capital is pouring into the cryptos. A logic that places investors in a strategic expectation, between prudence and opportunism.
The classic floor mentioned by Bollinger offers a glimmer of hope, but the external variables complicate the equation. Bitcoin sails between its own technical indicators and the turmoil of traditional markets. However, some believe that he will be the big winner of the trade war.
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