The Bitcoin market enters a capital day with the expiration of $ 16.5 billion in options, a record that could shape its short -term trajectory. While the $ 90,000 seemed at hand, an unexpected withdrawal has weakened upward positions, which offered sellers a strategic opportunity. In this fight between buyers and the sellers, the outcome will depend on price movements in the coming hours, with a potential impact far beyond this deadline. The market holds its breath, ready to switch in one direction or the other.
An expiration of high voltage bitcoin options
With an exceptional amount of $ 16.5 billion in Bitcoin options expired, investors find themselves in a complex situation. Indeed, the BTC options market is dominated by Deribit (74 % market share), followed by Mercantile Chicago Exchange (CME) and Binance, each with a more limited influence.
The open positions are distributed as follows:
- 10.5 billion dollars in purchase options (Calls), which rely on an increase in bitcoin;
- $ 6 billion in sales options (puts), which bet on a drop in the course;
- 7.6 billion dollars of purchase options are positioned above $ 92,000, which means that a 6.4 % rebound is necessary for them to become profitable.
If Bitcoin does not exceed this threshold, a majority of these contracts will become worthless. Conversely, open sellers can take advantage of this pressure to strengthen their position.
To maximize their earnings, bullish investors must imperatively push bitcoin to $ 90,000. At this level, they would benefit from a significant advantage, with a favorable difference of $ 3 billion between Purchase and sale options.
However, conversely, the lower traders seek to bring the price under $ 84,000, which would strengthen the value of the sales options in play.
The scenarios envisaged are clear:
- If Bitcoin oscillates between $ 85,000 and $ 88,000, the advantage is slightly leaning in favor of bullish investors;
- Between $ 88,000 and $ 90,000, the gap widens $ 1.6 billion;
- Beyond $ 90,000, the bruises would clearly resume the ascendant, with more than $ 3 billion in potential gains.
The behavior of traders in the coming hours will therefore be decisive for the orientation of Bitcoin in the short term.
A market influenced by external factors
The price of Bitcoin remains strongly influenced by global economic trends. Indeed, the persistent correlation with the S&P 500 (above 70 % since early March) illustrates how perceived the crypto is perceived as a risky asset. The uncertainty surrounding monetary policies and international economic tensions weighs on the morale of investors.
Some, however, hope for gradual decorrelation, carried by an increasing institutional adoption. Gamestop, Rumble, Metaplanet and Semler Scientific invested massively in Bitcoin, which strengthened its position as a reserve of alternative value. This phenomenon could ultimately modify the balance of forces on the market, but the short -term impact remains uncertain.
The expiration of today's options could serve as a catalyst for a more marked price movement in the coming days. If Bitcoin exceeds $ 90,000, this could trigger an upward dynamic for April, in particular in the event of resumption of incoming flows to the Bitcoin Spot ETF. Conversely, a break under $ 84,000 would strengthen the lowering positions and could accentuate the correction.
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