After two consecutive weeks of increase, the price of Bitcoin is undergoing a consolidation phase. Let's analyze together the future prospects of the BTC price.
Bitcoin (BTC) price situation
Bitcoin is still in a mid-term range between $60,000 and its all-time high near $73,500. After regaining momentum, from the lower part of this range, Bitcoin regained its resistance identified around $71,000 – $72,000. It is at this price level that the price of BTC lost strength, regaining $67,000. In the short term, this level appears to act as support on which the bitcoin price has entered a phase of indecision. The high part of this consolidation seems to be identified around $70,000. Lately, it seems that the price of BTC has recently rejected this level.
Indeed, at the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading below $69,000. The cryptocurrency therefore still seems to be going through a period of short-term indecision. However, it should be noted that the medium to long term trend remains bullish, as demonstrated by the Dow Theory and the 50 and 200 day moving averages. The latter, being located below the current price of Bitcoin and trending upward, can confirm this observation. As for the upward momentum of the cryptocurrency, it seems to be regaining strength, but nevertheless remains feverish, as demonstrated by the oscillators and the price itself.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.
Focus on derivatives (BTCUSDT)
Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts has moved almost in parallel with the price of the cryptocurrency, which in principle demonstrates a predominantly buy-oriented speculator conviction. This hypothesis can be confirmed by a positive funding rate, which reflects a price gap between BTCUSDT contracts and their underlying, likely due to upward pressure. On the liquidation side, they are not significant, demonstrating a market which is evolving healthily.
The heat map of liquidations over the past three months indicates that BTC/USDT has crossed two liquidation zones already notified in the May 22 analysis. Now, Bitcoin’s fluctuations have left behind two new zones above and below the current price. We can note above, the zone between $72,000 and $74,000. Below that, we can note the area between $65,000 and $67,000. If the market approaches these levels, we could see a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These areas therefore represent major points of interest for investors.
Hypotheses for the price of Bitcoin (BTC)
- As long as the price of Bitcoin manages to stay above $66,000, we can anticipate a break of $72,000. The next resistance to consider, if the bullish movement continues, would be Bitcoin's ATH below $74,000. Higher up, we can highlight the first level of Fibonacci extensions identified at $78,300. At this stage, this would represent an increase equivalent to 13%.
- If the price of Bitcoin does not remain above $66,000, we could consider support for buying interest at $65,000 or even $63,000. The next level to take into account, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $60,000. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to – 13%.
Conclusion
Bitcoin has recently shown renewed interest in the lower part of its medium-term range. After regaining key resistance, BTC entered a phase of indecision, calling this latter interest into question. Technically, everything suggests that the rise could continue, however, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at the different key levels to confirm or refute the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.
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