According to a CryptoQuant indicator that fell to its lowest level since January 2025, the amount of XRP available for trading on the Binance exchange platform is increasing. This signal increases the risk of selling pressure, however it does not prove that holders started by massively selling their tokens.
In brief
- XRP Scarcity Index on Binance drops to -0.94, its lowest level since January 2025.
- More XRP becomes available for trading, increasing the risk of selling pressure.
- Binance’s reserves, however, remain close to 2.6 billion XRP, well below their end-2024 level.
- Deposits have increased significantly, without causing a lasting accumulation of tokens on the platform.
- The buyer-seller ratio at 0.94 shows a slight dominance of aggressive selling on Binance.
XRP becomes much less rare on Binance
The Binance Scarcity Index for XRP fell as low as -0.94 from 0.77 last July. Thus, in a few months it erases its highest level in two years. A negative value means that tokens are more readily available on the exchange compared to their historical levels.
This index does not immediately measure sales. It contributes to the assessment of the relative scarcity of XRP on Binance. Its decline precise therefore more tokens can potentially fuel sell orders if their owners decide to trade them.
Four main data allow us to summarize this evolution:
- The scarcity index has fallen from 0.77 to -0.94 since July;
- Its current level is the lowest since January 2025;
- A negative value signals increased token availability;
- The increase in negotiable supply does not yet confirm an effective sale.
This trend contrasts with that observed during the month of July. At this time, the fall in reserves had reduced the immediately accessible supply, which would amplify an increase in price if demand returned.
However, XRP reserves on Binance remain low
The drop in the index does not mean that Binance owns more
Such an apparent contradiction comes from the method of calculating the indicator. The Scarcity Index compares current availability to historical trends. A moderate arrival of tokens can therefore produce a strong fluctuation when the total starting stock has already really declined.
Recent statistics from CryptoQuant consolidate this interpretation. From then on, daily deposits on the Binance exchange platform exceeded their quarterly average by 663% over many sessions. However, the reserves only changed by 0.22% compared to this same reference, to be around nearly 2.63 billion XRP.
A majority of the incoming tokens therefore seem to have quickly left the exchange or changed hands. This turnover phenomenon may correspond to arbitrage, market maker activity or transfers between wallets, rather than sustainable accumulation on Binance.
XRP on Binance faces selling pressure
However, the high availability of tokens creates a risk. Cryptos transferred to an exchange platform can be transferred more easily than those kept in private wallets. If demand does not evolve at the same pace, this additional offer can limit the price increase.
The second indicator reveals a moderate dominance of sellers. On Binance, the ratio between executed acquisitions and disposals reaches 0.94. A level below 1 means that aggressive sell orders exceed corresponding buys.
However, this data is not sufficient to announce a correction. Sellers do not dominate with the same intensity on all platforms. Additionally, strong liquidity can facilitate the absorption of sales without triggering a significant decline, particularly when buyers remain active.
The behavior of the price therefore confirms the on-chain signal. A simultaneous increase in reserves, net deposits and seller volumes could provide a stronger indication of a distribution phase.
The price of XRP resists around $1.49
This September 30, XRP is trading around $1.49, after briefly reaching $1.56 during the session. Thus, the token maintains an evolution of almost 10% over one month, despite the deterioration of its rarity index.
This resistance reveals that the market is currently absorbing the available supply. It may reflect sufficient spot demand, increased trader activity or a simple repositioning after the movements observed during the summer.
The next signal will mainly depend on the evolution of reserves. Their sustained rise could confirm that XRP is accumulating on Binance and could consolidate the selling pressure. Conversely, a return of the index to the green accompanied by net withdrawals could reduce the immediately tradable supply.
The -0.94 level is therefore a warning, not a price forecast. It reveals a change in the circulation of tokens on Binance, without demonstrating alone that a massive sell-off or drop in the price of XRP is brewing.
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