Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin boycott the top of the Rio Brics

Rio is about to accommodate a high -tensioned top of the BRICS, marked by two historical absences: Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. The Chinese president has retired for the first time since 2013, while his Russian counterpart remains at the Kremlin, targeted by an ICC arrest warrant. At a time when the block wants to assert itself against the dollar and strengthen its influence, these withdrawals weaken the unity of the group and trigger doubts on its geopolitical trajectory.

A removal of key figures: XI and Putin absent in Rio

While the BRICS thought of accelerating dedollarization after the summit of this year, Xi Jinping will not attend this meeting on July 6 and 7, 2025 in Rio de Janeiro. It is a notable diplomatic turning point, since the Chinese president has never missed a meeting of the group since 2013, including during virtual editions of the Pandemic.

Beijing officially invoked a “Agenda conflict”but several diplomats evoke an irritation linked to the Brazilian invitation addressed to Narendra Modi for a state dinner, perceived as a camouflet towards China. In this context, Prime Minister Li Qiang will represent Beijing in Rio, as had already been the case in the G20 in India in 2023.

Russia, for its part, confirmed the absence of Vladimir Putin, hampered by The arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Although the Kremlin has long allowed doubt, its absence is no longer debated. These two withdrawals, for distinct, but symbolically heavy reasons, deeply modify the balance of the summit. Here are the main facts to remember:

• Xi Jinping will be replaced by Li Qiang, a lower rank delegation, despite the strategic importance of the summit;

• Brazil, host country, hoped for its arrival after two bilateral meetings between Lula and Xi in less than a year (G20 2024, Chinese-Celac 2025 forum);

• The state dinner in honor of Modi could cause Chinese discomfort, suggesting a tension between Beijing and New Delhi;

• Putin, on the other hand, is absent for judicial reasons: Brazil being signatory to the status of Rome, he legally risked arrest on his soil;

• These absences de facto reduce the symbolic and political scope of the summit, when the BRICS strive to extend their influence.

The coordinated withdrawal, although not concerted, of China and Russia to this central diplomatic meeting calls into question the capacity of the BRICS to display a strategic unit in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical context.

An economic and monetary dynamic set

The joint absence of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin goes beyond a diplomatic protocol case. It risks having direct consequences on the economic and financial ambitions of the BRICS, in particular on the strategic site of the common currency mentioned as a lever of dedollarization.

This project, often relayed in the official speeches of Moscow and Beijing, aimed to create a credible alternative to the monetary system dominated by the US dollar. However, without the active participation of the two main engines of this initiative, it seems unlikely that concrete advances be announced at the Rio summit.

Chinese spokesperson Guo Jiakun underlines that “In a volatile and disturbed world, the nations of the BRICS maintain their strategic will and work together for peace, stability and global development”.

However, this rhetoric, although reassuring, masks a more uncertain reality. The group's internal differences, exacerbated by rivalries between China and India, slow down collective decisions.

The disappointment of Brazil in the face of XI withdrawal could also weaken the diplomatic momentum of the Brazilian presidency, even though Lula hoped to make the summit of this year a reinforced south-south cooperation showcase. As for the newly integrated or invited countries (Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, etc.), their margin of influence remains limited in the arbitration of major orientations.

In the medium term, this weakened configuration could repel certain structuring sites of the block, including discussions on a possible stablecoin of the BRICS or a sovereign blockchain, subjects followed closely in the crypto sphere.

If none of the projects is officially suspended, their credibility largely depends on the political will of the heavy goods vehicles that are China and Russia. Their partial withdrawal from the Rio summit throws a veil of uncertainty on the group's technological agenda, however presented as an alternative to Western standards in digital finance.

Ultimately, the Summit of Rio, emptied of two of its major protagonists, risks making a failed meeting. He will no doubt offer a showcase of institutional continuity, but without the hoped -for structuring. Ultimately, this sequence could encourage the BRICS to rethink their governance and their method of coordination, at the risk of losing credibility with markets and actors like Ron Paul who saw in them a real alternative to the Western economic system.