According to a calculation, the next Bitcoin halving, which occurs every four years, would take place on April 20, 2024. This date, which refers to the number 420 favored by Elon Musk, is intriguing. However, others believe that this key event will take place around April 14 instead. Either way, halving could give new momentum to the price of Bitcoin.
The halving, a historically decisive event for the price of Bitcoin
Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that halves the bitcoin reward given to miners for each validated block. Currently 6.25 BTC, it will increase to 3.125 BTC after the next halving.
This quadrennial event mechanically reduces the rate of issuance of new bitcoins and therefore the inflation of the total supply. In the past, it has had a very positive effect on the price of BTC in the medium term. By reducing supply, halving causes a relative shortage which drives up prices.
In the months following the previous halvings, after an initial period of latency, the price of Bitcoin increased spectacularly to reach new heights. Increased scarcity eventually wins out and demand exceeds available supply.
Some estimate that the next bitcoin halving will take place symbolically on April 20, 2024, in reference to the number 420 dear to Elon Musk. Could the influence of the Tesla boss give additional momentum to the BTC price this time?
The exact date doesn’t matter, it’s the medium-term impact that counts
However, we must remain cautious about this possible coincidence. Other calculations rather place the bitcoin halving around the April 14, 2024. And in the end, the exact day doesn’t matter: it’s more the medium-term effect on the supply of bitcoin that really matters.
Certainly, in the past, the price of bitcoin has increased significantly in the months following a halving. But there is no guarantee that this effect will recur in 2024, as other macroeconomic or speculative factors come into play.
In any case, halving the inflation of Bitcoin is positive for its long-term value, by mechanically and sustainably strengthening its scarcity. The possible nod to the number 420 adds an amusing curiosity, but does not change the underlying economic phenomenon.
The coincidence of the next bitcoin halving with the symbolic date of April 20, 2024 is enough to fuel speculation. But beyond the anecdote, it is the real impact of this quadrennial event on the offer that matters in the long term. The halving should reinforce the scarcity of Bitcoin, even if other factors will influence its price.
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