While Donald Trump is preparing to announce new customs rights, investors are wondering about the impact of these protectionist measures for cryptos. Unlike initial fears, several financial analysts believe that these prices could ultimately strengthen the position of bitcoin as an alternative refuge value.
Trump's customs policy and its immediate effects on the markets
On April 2, 2025, US President Donald Trump was expected to announce the imposition of “reciprocal” customs duties aimed at 15 countries, including China, Canada and Mexico.
These protectionist measures initially caused a drop in Bitcoin prices, going from more than $ 100,000 at the start of the year to around $ 80,000 in March. This drop is explained by the growing correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets, all affected by global economic uncertainty.
“” This is the appetite for the risk of markets which continues to deteriorate “, explain Marc Ostwald, chief economist at ADM Investor Services International.
For the moment, investors favor gold, the price of which has increased by 18% since the start of the year, as a traditional refuge value.
However, as Zach Pandl, a former macroeconomist at Goldman Sachs and current research responsible for Grayscale, ” Once this price announcement has been made, cryptos markets can potentially focus on the fundamentals that are very positive. »»
The weakening of the dollar: an opportunity for bitcoin
In the long term, customs tariffs could paradoxically strengthen the attraction of bitcoin by weakening the world domination of the US dollar. This fragmentation of the international financial system could thus create a space favorable to alternative currencies.
Omid Malekan, professor at Columbia Business School, believes that Bitcoin could soon become “new gold” in this context of economic uncertainty.
The increase in prices linked to prices and the possible retaliatory measures of the United States trade partners already push investors to seek decentralized assets.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, abounds in this direction:
The prices proposed by Trump could potentially multiply the attraction of bitcoin by shaking confidence in fiduciary currencies such as the US dollar, especially if inflationary pressures are intensifying. With a universal price of 20% risking causing stagflation – increase in costs without economic growth – combined with probable commercial responses of global actors, investors could increasingly turn to bitcoin as a refuge value, exploiting its decentralized nature to protect themselves from the consequences of a world trade war.
In addition, prices could increase inflationary pressures, strengthening the argument of Bitcoin as protection against the devaluation of traditional currencies. According to experts from Wells Fargo and Bank of America cited by Ryan Lee, these protectionist measures could “ Increase manufacturing prices and erode the domination of the dollar “, Directors thus leading more capital to the Crypto markets.
Despite the current turbulence, Pandl remains optimistic:
I would not have left my job at Wall Street if I had not thought that bitcoin would be the long -term winner.
In short, Trump's customs tariffs therefore represent a paradox for Bitcoin: short -term negatives, but potentially beneficial over time. If global economic uncertainty continues, Bitcoin could confirm its role as a credible alternative to the traditional financial system, particularly in a context where confidence in the dollar is gradually eroding.
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