Despite the fall, CryptoQuant believes in a new Bitcoin high

Has bitcoin already reached the peak of this cycle, or is the market preparing to surprise investors once again? As volatility fuels fears and corrections multiply, on-chain data offers a nuanced reading of the situation. CryptoQuant indicators reveal the evolution of investor profits, while recent purchases by large whales raise questions about a possible return of confidence. Between encouraging technical signals and macroeconomic uncertainties, the market is today sending contradictory messages.

CryptoQuant’s PnL Index

The price of the flagship crypto is currently hovering around $64,550, a drop of around 50% from its record high of $126,000 in October 2025. However, according to on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, the fundamental structure of the network does not indicate an end of the cycle.

The 365-day PnL Index signal continues to trend lower, a move historically associated with accumulation phases rather than a market top. Thus, the company underlines that this trend generally manifests itself when the market prepares its deep recovery, “suggesting that the current BTC cycle has yet to peak”.

This PnL Index synthesizes several major industry metrics to define the overall dynamics of the cycle:

• The ratio of market value to realized value (MVRV);
• The net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) indicator;
• The ratio of activity between long and short term holders.

This technical summary is measured against its own 365-day moving average. Currently, the relative weakness of this index shows that investors are actively accumulating their tokens at low prices, which theoretically excludes the phase of speculative overheating characteristic of traditional bull market endings.

The return of bullish signals and the strategic activity of whales

On May 12, CryptoQuant’s bull-bear indicator flipped green, marking its first official bullish signal since March 2023. Although industry experts point out that no technical tool is infallible, this change in trend immediately coincided with a notable return of buying pressure from large portfolios, which perceive the current drop in prices as a major buying opportunity at current levels.

This accumulation dynamic materialized in a very concrete way at the beginning of June when a whale took advantage of a low point on June 5, when bitcoin was oscillating at $59,734, to massively acquire BTC for $98.9 million. Indeed, this major investor made a quick profit of $3.5 million in the space of just forty-eight hours during the technical rebound that followed. This type of operation demonstrates that institutional actors continue to actively defend the major psychological support of $60,000, validating the hypothesis of an active accumulation phase.

The macroeconomic confrontation

However, this thesis faces skepticism from investors for whom the 50% drop since the October 2025 record indicates that the increase is no longer possible. According to this permanent vision, the temporary rebounds observed would only constitute exit liquidity allowing large players to liquidate their positions before a more significant fall. Moreover, the history of CryptoQuant itself calls for nuance. This same indicator had issued a false positive signal in 2022, proving that on-chain data describes the internal structure of the network but does not guarantee future price movements.

Such a correlation with traditional markets remains decisive and impossible to anticipate alone. Macroeconomic forces, such as Fed interest rate decisions, international tariff announcements or global geopolitical tensions, exert a major influence on purchasing behavior. Although CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju urged holders to hold on, saying on social media that “bullish opium for bitcoin is coming in the coming days” months, the actual behavior of investors remains closely dependent on available global liquidity.

If the technical structure of bitcoin argues for a continuity of the cycle, its outcome will depend on overall macroeconomic stabilization. On-chain signals offer an encouraging prospect of accumulation, but they must be validated by an easing of external economic uncertainties to generate a real bullish rally. For investors, the key therefore lies in carefully observing current supports, while keeping a watchful eye on future monetary decisions by the Fed which will seal the fate of this cycle.