What if quantum fear was just another pretext in a exhausted crypto cycle

The quantum apocalypse is coming soon. Some already see it in action. It would be enough to look at bitcoin, cut with a billhook, to be convinced of this. A real bloodletting. Crypto investors are looking for culprits. What if that was it? What if the computer of the future killed the assets of the past? On closer inspection, however, the numbers tell a different story. Perhaps quantum is just a practical scarecrow in a market that is running out of steam.

46% fall: bitcoin victim of quantum or competition from AI?

The observation is brutal. Since October, bitcoin has lost 46% of its value. Analysts like Charles Edwards point to an ideal culprit: quantum psychosis. But Matt Carallo, Bitcoin developer at Spiral, came to put his two cents on the Unchained podcast. He throws out a figure that ruins the whole theory:

If this were true, then Ethereum would be rising sharply against bitcoin.

Translation: ETH has fallen by 58% over the same period. Worse than bitcoin. So quantum doesn't explain anything.

So what else? Carallo advances a track that holds up : artificial intelligence. “ AI is super capital intensivehe said. It's a massive new investment class that competes head-on for capital “.

While Nvidia is pumping all the liquidity, bitcoin is bleeding out. The quantum watches the spectacle from afar.

Discreet work of bitcoin developers in the face of accusations of sleep

Second misconception that needs to be dispelled: bitcoin devs are snoozing. Nick Carter even accuses them of “sleepwalking towards collapse”. Carallo laughs softly.

The reality on the ground is much more complex. Big names like Jonas Nick at Blockstream Research or Tim Ruffing have been working on the subject for ages. Their idea is simple but elegant: allow wallets to commit a post-quantum key now, without using it. Zero cost for the user. And the icing on the cake, the seed sentences (those twelve or twenty-four words scribbled on paper) are already quantum-safe.

“ This means that we could do a soft fork relatively quicklyexplains Carallo. It would be enough to require proof of knowledge of the seed “. The technical solution therefore exists. It's even rather simple on paper. But she doesn't make noise in the media sphere.

Meanwhile, FUD travels at the speed of a well-intentioned tweet.

1.7 million dormant BTC: the real debate behind the ambient fear

This touches the heart of the problem, the one we prefer to avoid. Around 5% of the total bitcoin supply is sleeping quietly in wallets without a seed phrase. The corners of Satoshi, the lost ones, the old ones that no one has awakened. What should we do with it when the time comes? Burn them cleanly or expose them to quantum theft?

Carallo puts forward a thesis that will make people cringe: the market will decide for itself.

The fork that disables old addresses will reduce supply. So mechanically, it will be worth more.

Matt Carallo

Understand: it is not the developers who will decide the fate of these millions, but the holders, via their choice of channel. Suddenly, quantum fear becomes a very practical tool. Are those who are screaming today quietly preparing to burn millions of BTC?

The real danger may not be in the computers of the future. It is hidden in the stories we are served today.

The real numbers behind psychosis

• 46%: the fall of bitcoin since its October peak;
• 58%: the fall of Ethereum over the same period, even more severe;
• 1.7 million: dormant BTCs without seed sentences that raise questions;
• 5%: the share of the total offer affected by this technical problem;
• $67,596: the price of bitcoin at the time of writing.

For some specialists, quantum computing will never represent a real threat to bitcoin. For others, like Coinshare, the risk can even be quantified with precision: only $719 million would be exposed. A trifle on a market scale. So why all the fuss? In an exhausted cycle that searches for explanations, a good excuse is always better than a bad excuse. Quantum is scary. That's already a win for those who want to sell aluminum foil.