Whales Are Not Hoarding Bitcoin According to CryptoQuant

While bitcoin remains above $89,000 at the start of 2026, many analysts say that whales are beginning a powerful accumulation movement. A signal perceived by some as the prelude to a new bull run. However, behind this optimistic reading, on-chain data tells a completely different story. Far from a massive return of large aircraft, the current market dynamic seems guided by other players, much more discreet… and undoubtedly more decisive for the future.

A vastly exaggerated accumulation of whales

Contrary to appearances, whales are not the drivers of the current market dynamics, while their rush on Binance had triggered a shock wave.

According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, the data relayed in recent weeks concerning an alleged phase of bitcoin accumulation by large holders is “misleading”.

He explains that these signals largely come from internal movements on exchanges. “Most data on whale accumulation is distorted by exchange activity, not actual investor behavior”.

These platforms regularly consolidate funds, particularly for operational or regulatory reasons, by consolidating several small portfolios into a few large addresses. An accounting operation which results, on on-chain analysis tools, in an apparent increase in the number of massive wallets. However, this increase is artificial.

Once these consolidation effects are filtered, the data shows the opposite of what certain graphs shared on the networks suggest: the whales do not strengthen their positions, they reduce them. Addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC are in decline. Several converging indicators support this conclusion:

• The aggregate balances of major addresses continue to fall, which suggests a distribution phase rather than a return to purchasing;

• The outflows recorded on certain spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest that significant positions are transferred or resold;

• Internal movements within exchanges remain a major disruptive factor in the interpretation of on-chain data, but do not reflect strategic positions taken.

These elements signal the growing gap between the interpretation of raw data and the behavioral reality of major investors. Far from a generalized enthusiasm for whales, the market seems to be evolving in a more measured climate, where the movements of institutional players and technical effects dominate the signals of real recovery.

A discreet, but decisive return

As eyes turn to the whales, another signal, much more fundamental, has emerged in the silence.

Matthew Sigel, head of crypto research at VanEck, says that “long-term holders have become net buyers again over the last 30 days”and this after what he describes as “the largest sales event of this cohort since 2019”. This trend reversal, although less dramatic than the alleged whale buildup, marks a significant shift in market structure.

Long-term holders, historically known for their patience and resilience, often act as a barometer of long-term trust in the Bitcoin network. Their gradual return to accumulation suggests that the distribution phase observed in 2025 could be behind us, and that selling pressure is starting to ease.

This behavior contrasts sharply with that of short-term investors or institutional entities more exposed to speculative dynamics. If their tendency to hold onto their positions is confirmed, this could stabilize the circulating supply of BTC and, ultimately, strengthen the foundations of a new bullish cycle.

These crossed dynamics between misleading signals and discreet accumulation are redrawing the lines of reading the market. If the behavior of whales divides, that of long-term holders intrigues. In this context, the price of bitcoin could well evolve not according to appearances, but according to the depth of structural convictions.