US takes control of oil-rich Venezuela after Maduro's fall

US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that reviving Venezuela's oil industry would be a central focus of Washington's intervention following the impeachment of President Nicolas Maduro. He presented this initiative as both a geopolitical maneuver and an economic lever. Speaking from Mar-a-Lago, Trump said U.S. energy companies should play a leading role in rehabilitating the country's oil infrastructure, while the United States would oversee a temporary transition of power.

US policy moves towards an oil-centered recovery plan for Venezuela

The statements followed a nighttime military operation in which U.S. forces arrested Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. Both face drug trafficking charges in New York. Trump has clarified that the United States will administer Venezuela “with a group” until conditions permit a formal transfer of authority, although the precise terms of governance and oversight remain unclear.

According to Trump, oil investment could offer American companies a way to compensate for accumulated losses during years of sanctions and underinvestment. Large energy companies would be called upon to finance repairs to wells, pipelines and export terminals, with repayment indexed to future production rather than direct public funding.

We're going to keep the oil flowing as it should. We will sell large quantities of oil to other countries, many of which are already using it, but I would say many more will come.

Donald Trump

The first political signals indicate that Washington intends to maintain tight control over the Venezuelan oil sector during the interim period:

• U.S. oil majors would be positioned to lead infrastructure repairs and field development.
• The existing oil embargo would remain in effect despite the change in leadership.
• Energy companies would advance reconstruction costs, with reimbursement through production.
• The United States would oversee production and exports during the transition.
• Crude shipments would resume to global buyers once volumes recover.

Uncertainty over control of oil revenues increases risks for buyers

Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, estimated at 303 billion barrelsor about 17% of global supply, according to the US Energy Information Administration. However, production has collapsed over the past two decades. It peaked at nearly 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1990s, before falling to around 800,000 barrels per day, according to Kpler data.

Chevron remains the only major American producer still active in the country. The company exported around 140,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Kpler. Chevron says it continues to comply with all applicable laws, while placing the safety of its personnel and the protection of its assets first.

China and Russia also maintain stakes in the Venezuelan energy sector, raising questions about the execution of contracts and control of assets. Russia-linked companies were granted a 15-year extension on some joint ventures last November, shortly before Maduro's impeachment. Analysts say these agreements could be revisited as political authority in Caracas evolves.

For markets, the immediate risk lies in the uncertainty surrounding control of export revenues and settlement flows. Buyers may defer payments or require additional collateral, particularly while sanctions remain in effect. Some analysts, however, believe that Chevron's continued exports could help limit supply disruptions in the short term.

Analysts anticipate limited near-term impact on supply risks

Some of the main market risks to watch out for are:

• Safety conditions around oil fields, pipelines and ports.
• Possible export interruptions from non-US operators.
• A global oil surplus which reduces price sensitivity.
• The continuation of OPEC+ production increases, increasing pressure on prices.
• Record production levels in the United States, capable of offsetting supply shocks.

Oil markets entered 2026 under pressure. Brent fell by around 19% in 2025, while US crude fell by almost 20%, recording its biggest annual decline in five years. The increase in OPEC+ production and the continued rise of US shale oil weighed on prices, limiting the impact of geopolitical tensions.

Analysts say any near-term supply risks from Venezuela could be absorbed by global excess capacity. In the longer term, on the other hand, a recovery in production could reshape trade flows if political control stabilizes and if the sanctions policy evolves. The pace of U.S. involvement, along with reactions from China and Russia, is expected to play a key role in determining Venezuela's future place in global energy and commodities markets.