Trump confirms his protectionist policy

A few statements are enough to shake the markets, and Donald Trump has once again demonstrated this. A Washington Post article suggested his team was exploring a more nuanced approach to pricing policy. This assumption alone was enough to propel stock indices higher, with investors betting on an easing of trade tensions. However, the former president was quick to react. In a message published on social networks, he firmly denied this information, and denounced yet another attempt at media manipulation. This sudden turnaround triggered a shock wave in the financial markets.

Wall Street propelled, the dollar drifting

The markets reacted with unusual vigor to the publication of the Washington Post, which put forward the hypothesis of a change in American tariff policy under the Trump administration. According to the newspaper, the former president's entourage would have considered targeting only certain strategic sectors instead of imposing generalized taxation on imports. This prospect immediately fueled the optimism of investors, who interpreted this change of course as a favorable signal for global trade and economic growth.

In a burst of euphoria, stock purchases multiplied, which propelled US stock indices reach new highs. The S&P 500 rose 0.55% to 5,975.38 points, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.24%, closing at 19,864.98 points. Thus, technological stocks and communication services, sensitive to the prospects of a more stable commercial environment, particularly benefited from this enthusiasm. On the other side of the Atlantic, the European indices followed suit, the STOXX 600 showing an increase of 0.94%, and thus close to its highest levels of the session.

But this stock market surge had an immediate side effect: a marked weakening of the American dollar. The greenback index fell 0.68%, reaching 108.22 points, while the euro strengthened 0.8% to trade at $1.039. This decline in the dollar reflects market uncertainty about the economic trajectory that Trump could actually follow upon his return to the White House. Anticipation of an easing of tariff barriers has fueled fears of a growing trade deficit, which has added pressure on the US currency. A few weeks before the presidential inauguration, this volatility reflects the nervousness of investors faced with the dissonance between Trump's declarations and leaks from his political entourage.

Tensions on raw materials and bond uncertainties

The stock market upturn was only short-lived. Shortly after the publication of the Washington Post article, Donald Trump took to social networks to categorically refute any intention to soften his tariff policy. “This is another attempt by the media to sow confusion,” he said, and called the newspaper’s report “Fake News.” He insisted on his desire to maintain a hard line in matters of international trade, and thus brushes aside any hypothesis of a relaxation of customs duties.

This sudden turnaround immediately reignited investors' nervousness. In the bond market, yields on US Treasury bills have jumped, reflecting a reassessment of future economic risks. The 10-year bond rate rose to 4.612%, while the 30-year bond rate reached 4.8337%. This increase reflects growing market uncertainty about future decisions by the Federal Reserve and upcoming trade tensions.

The impact was also felt on raw materials. In response to economic uncertainties, oil prices fell, with Brent at $76.30 (-0.3%) and WTI at $73.56 (-0.5%). This drop reflects investor concern about the announced rigidity of American tariff policy, which could slow down global demand. Thus, gold, often perceived as a safe haven, also recorded a slight decline, penalized by the rise in bond yields which reinforce the attractiveness of the dollar.

Uncertainty still hovers over the markets, caught between contradictory declarations and a still unclear economic policy. Thus, investors are struggling to discern Donald Trump's real strategy, while tensions over interest rates and inflation continue to fuel fears. Each intervention by the president-elect now acts as a catalyst for volatility, forcing financial operators to adjust their expectations in real time. As his inauguration approaches, market fluctuations are likely to intensify, raising the specter of a year 2025 marked by lasting economic and monetary uncertainties.