A commercial confrontation that was promising to be bloody was avoided in extremis. On the eve of June 1, Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen spoke. A decisive exchange. Result: five weeks of additional truce before the implementation of American surcharge on European products. This reprieve was hailed by the markets. From the opening, European scholarships jumped. An air puff for investors, but a fragile lull.
In short
- Trump postpones European surcharge, soothing immediate fears in the financial markets.
- The CAC 40 earns 1.01 %, a sign of a renewed optimism among investors.
- The auto, luxury and semiconductor sectors take advantage of the European stock market rebound.
A spectacular thrust of European scholarships after an unexpected call
On Sunday May 25, Ursula von der Leyen won her phone and made a decisive call. Online, Donald Trump. The American president, after a week of climbing, grant. Europe obtains until July 9 to continue business discussions.
The EU and the United States share the most strategic commercial relationship in the world.
Ursula von der Leyen
This gesture calmed the spirits. The day after, European scholarships ignite. The CAC 40 increased by 1.01 %, the Dax of 1.44 %. The Eurostoxx 50 climbs 1.29 %. Even the peripheral indices follow. However, London remains closed that day, reducing exchanges.
In comparison, Futures US also bounce back : +0.85 % for the Dow Jones. The Nasdaq 100 wins 1.19 %. In Asia, the trend is mixed. The Nikkei and Kospi go up, while the Hang Seng is retreating.
European investors find appetite. The call between Trump and Von der Leyen therefore frozen a customs war. For how long?
Price threats that have shaken the scholarship … and Bitcoin
The previous week had been much more agitated. THE April 2Trump announced “reciprocal” surcharges of 20 %quickly lowered to 10 % for 90 days. Then he returns to the charge. On Truth Social, he writes: ” Discussions are not progressing anywhere! »»
THE Friday, May 23, he announces a 50 % rate on all European products From June 1. Immediate consequence: European scholarships plunge. The CAC 40 lost 2.8 %, the Dax gave way 2.3 %, the Stoxx 600 fell by 1.9 %. Banks suffer: Deutsche Bank -5.2 %, Société Générale -4.6 %. Even the values of luxury and auto unscrew. Bitcoin itself has won over and drops 3.7 % in one session.
The nervousness earns the bond market: the yields of the German bunds drop by 10 base points. Investors flee to refuge assets. The Swiss franc gains 0.6 % against the dollar. In this chaos, the European scholarship collects the shock, then waits. The Sunday call changes the situation. But the fracture is revealed.
The truce does not erase the sword of Damocles
The price threat is simply delayed. Ursula von der Leyen pleaded for more time. She obtained five weeks. But Trump remains unpredictable. Besides, he writes:
I accepted the postponement – on July 9 – it was a privilege.
The market knows that Everything can switch. As proof, volatility remains strong. Obligations are always highly sought after. Prudence dominates.
The flows come out of American assets. European shares have attracted 34 billion euros since January. Conversely, they targeting the United States received only 8.2 billion. This reversal reflects a deep change in perception.
But nothing has yet been acquired. Trade discussions resume. The euro remains strong, but the dollar flanks. Moody's lowered the American debt note, adding to uncertainty. The scholarship advances on a fragile line.
Some figures to remember:
- The CAC 40 fell 2.8 % on May 23, then rebounded by 1.01 % on May 27;
- Deutsche Bank lost 5.2 % in one session, before a partial rebound on Monday;
- The Swiss franc earned 0.6 % against the dollar, strengthening its role of refuge value;
- 34 billion euros injected into European shares since January;
- The Bitcoin price fell 3.7 % to the announcement of Trump's surcharge.
Donald Trump granted the European Union a stay until July 9, offering a respite to the markets. However, uncertainty persists, maintained by political and economic volatility. This period allowed the European scholarship to reconnect with green, Also supported by the Fed's eagerly awaited decision to maintain its rates on May 8. This combination of elements has rekindled the confidence of investors, despite the risks still present. Europe saves time to negotiate, but vigilance remains in a tense international context.
Maximize your Cointribne experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For each article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start accumulating advantages.
