Emmanuel Macron scans social networks with growing concern. François Bayrou's budgetary announcements stir up popular anger that strangely recalls fall 2018. The Élysée fears a return from the yellow vests movement which had shaken his first mandate and threatened the regime.
In short
- As in 2018 with the revolt of yellow vests, the dispute rises during the summer on social networks.
- The Bayrou plan provides 40 billion savings by hitting the most fragile without taxing the rich.
- The popularity scores of Macron and Bayrou reach historically low levels (18-19 %).
A calendar reminiscent of bad memories of yellow vests
Does history stutter? The similarities with 2018 disturb the presidential entourage. A year and a half from the end of the second termfollowing the Bayrou budgetary announcements and the humiliation of customs duties, Emmanuel Macron faces the same alarm signals as before the explosion of yellow vests.
Like six years ago, Contestation germinates during the summer. Social networks rustle on calls for mobilization. Anonymous collectives emerge, taking up the 2018 movement codes. The Collective Yellow Cardboardold Twitter account of yellow vests, resurfaces to relay calls.
The holidays play a crucial role in this dynamic. Indeed, citizens have the time necessary to transform into a political body. This rest period promotes collective reflection and organization.
The intelligence services on maximum alert in the face of the return of the yellow vests
Matignon leaves nothing to chance. Information services methodically scrutinize social networks to take the temperature. As soon as the mobilization rises, “the phones will heat up”.
L'September 10 call particularly worries the executive. A collective of anonymous citizens, presenting himself as “nurse, teacher, unemployed”, launched a “general and unlimited judgment of the country”. Their message: “Without us, they are nothing”.
At the same time, the petition against the DUPLomb law approach the two million signatures. This text, which softens environmental regulations for agriculture, crystallizes a massive opposition. The executive had not anticipated this ecological mobilization.
A political fracture that widens
The numbers make it vertigo. Emmanuel Macron and François Bayrou are reaching a Record unpopularity 18-19 % of favorable opinions. Unheard of under the Vᵉ Republic for an executive tandem, according to available analyzes.
This situation opens a boulevard to parliamentary censorship. The National Rally threatened to vote the motion on the budget. Marine Le Pen, despite her ineligibility, seems ready to take the plunge. A risky strategy that testifies to the pressure exerted by its electoral base.
Socialist side, The appointment of Najat Vallaud-Belkacem at the Court of Auditors will not be enough to buy party benevolence. Olivier Faure, boss of the PS, maintains his line hostile to the Bayrou government to try to compete with Mélenchon on his political space.
The explosive budget equation
François Bayrou sealed his fate with his announcements. Forty billion savings which will strike the most fragile, while the ultra-rich remain preserved. A distribution deemed inequitable by 75 % of French people according to Ifop.
The abolition of two unpaid public holidays sounds like a provocation. These “chore days” feed an already exacerbated feeling of injustice. Especially when at the same time, no significant measure aims at high income.
The budget impasse seems total. With The mechanical increase in debt loadbringing the deficit under 3 % by 2029 is impossible. Promised structural reforms are limited to cosmetic adjustments.
The previous historicals of an anger that rises
History teaches that The revolutions arise from this cost-benefit calculation Analyzed by Daron Acemoglu, Nobel Prize in economics. When a sufficient proportion of the population believes that the cost of maintaining the system exceeds that of change, the dikes yield.
In 1789, the Estates General summoned to resolve the financial crisis moved to the Constituent National Assembly. The bankruptcy of the old regime had precipitated this convocation, as today French debt pushes the executive to austerity measures.
Revolutionary mechanics follow predictable steps. First, an institutional blockage opposes the executive to the Parliament. Then, the social explosion transforms the political crisis into a systemic rupture. Lenin, summarized a revolutionary situation like this “Above they can no longer, below they no longer want.”
Social networks today play the role of the pamphlets of 1789, crystallizing a challenge that goes beyond traditional cleavages. This progressive awareness First touch the “Nicolas”, these middle -class assets who consider paying too much tax, before contaminating the entire social body.
As on multiple occasions during history, tax anger turns into systemic rejection.
A high voltage fall
Emmanuel Macron therefore ends his second mandate as he had started: under the threat of a popular uprising. The 2018 ingredients are recomposed with aggravating factors.
This time, the executive faces a triple crisis : institutional with the threat of censorship, social with calls for mobilization, and economic with the budgetary dead end.
The executive plays big on the fall budget. Between probable parliamentary censorship and announced social mobilization, September promises to be explosive. President Macron seems to be caught again by rising anger. The rating agencies scrutinize the French situation, while the conditions of a new November 17 gradually meet. Autumn 2025 could well seal the fate of the Fifth Republic regime which will have lived in its last years under the permanent threat of social emblaisment.
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