If you looked at the bitcoin charts on May 1, you certainly noticed that the price of the cryptocurrency fell to less than $57,000. Even though the crypto is currently trading at just over $59,000, its fall continues to surprise many. How can we understand that its price collapsed after the halving when we expected an opposite trend?
Bitcoin halving in 2024 is not similar to previous ones
For those with a good memory, 17 months after the halving of 2016, bitcoin saw its price increase by 3000%. Its price had reached the threshold of $20,000 in December 2017. The history of the bitcoin price has taught us to hope for a bitcoin rally after each halving.
However, it must be recognized that certain elements distinguish the 2024 halving from previous ones. For example, a few weeks before the halving, bitcoin experienced an upward cycle which took its price to a historic high. Such a trend has never been observed since the creation of bitcoin in 2009.
Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan attributes bitcoin's collapse to two main factors. He cites “ongoing bear market events” and economic conditions affected by “the Fed's reversal.” If he recalls that bitcoin has increased by 35% compared to its price at the start of the year, Mati affirms that the current trend is not surprising.
“The collapse of bitcoin is not surprising”
Like Mati Greenspan, JPMorgan analysts are also not surprised by the collapse of bitcoin. They predicted in March 2024 that the crypto price could fall to $42,000 after the halving. They even said that we should not expect a post-halving BTC rally.
For them, by reaching a peak before the event, the price of the crypto had already integrated the halving before it occurred. 10x Research CEO and chief analyst Markus Thielen, for his part, is betting on a post-halving floor at $52,000, based on BTC ETF theory.
That said, many other investors are predicting new highs for bitcoin. Lyn Alden says the cryptocurrency could reach a new high in 2024. Tim Draper reiterates his previous prediction that BTC could soon reach $250,000. So, it's clear. We can continue to hope for a post-halving BTC rally.
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