The Fed injects $13.5 billion: Will Bitcoin explode?

Could the four-year bitcoin cycle be experiencing its final moments? This is the unexpected hypothesis put forward by Grayscale in a report published Monday. According to the asset manager, the crypto queen could free itself from its historical mechanics as early as 2026, reaching new heights well before the usual deadline. This major questioning of a pillar of crypto analysis triggers as many hopes as questions in a rapidly changing market.

Grayscale is betting on the breakdown of the historic bitcoin cycle

In its latest report after formalizing its IPO application, asset manager Grayscale calls into question a pillar of crypto analysis: the four-year cycle of bitcoin, traditionally based on halving events.

The company says this pattern could be broken as early as next year, paving the way for an unprecedented upward movement by 2026. “While the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove incorrect and the asset's price could reach new highs next year”can we read in the report.

The statement comes as bitcoin has fallen 32% from its previous highs, but some technical signals are already pointing to a reversal. Among them, the imbalance of Bitcoin options, which rose above 4, indicates according to Grayscale that investors have already “extensively hedged their exposure to downside risk”.

Beyond these technical indicators, several factual elements support the thesis of a cycle reversal:

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs Recorded in November $3.48 billion in net outflowstheir second worst month on record. However, an inflection point is emerging with four consecutive days of inflows, including $8.5 million on the Monday preceding the publication of the report;

• The likelihood of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, estimated at 87% for a drop of 25 basis points from the December 10 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool;

• The evolution of the American regulatory framework, with progress on structuring texts such as the Digital Asset Market Structure Bill and the CLARITY Act, which could encourage a more massive entry of institutional capital from 2026.

For Grayscale, these elements converge towards an unprecedented scenario: that of bitcoin emancipating itself from its traditional cyclical rhythm, driven by changing macro and structural fundamentals. The dynamic nevertheless remains dependent on the confirmation of these trends in the months to come.

When Fed liquidity enters the crypto universe

Another key event, this time outside the crypto ecosystem, could have a significant impact on the price of bitcoin: the surprise injection of $13.5 billion in liquidity by the US Federal Reserve this 1^er December.

Indeed, this is the second most massive operation since the COVID crisis. This decision marks, according to several analysts, the effective end of the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) program. Bitcoin and risk assets can benefit from a new liquidity boost.

Despite this monetary easing, bitcoin has not yet capitalized on this favorable wind, unlike the stock markets. The S&P 500 index continues to rise, supported by historically buoyant seasonality in December, while BTC remains behind.

For Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, this divergence could portend a reversal in risky assets led by bitcoin. He mentions an excessive valuation of BTC compared to gold, with a ratio of 20x against “fair value” estimated at 13x.

According to its modeling, this imbalance could expose bitcoin to a correction, especially since the implied volatility of the S&P 500 is at historically low levels, reinforcing the hypothesis of general market complacency.

Bitcoin is replaying the 2022 bear market, but the framework has changed. If the hypothesis of a peak in 2026 is gaining ground, there is nothing to indicate that the old cycles still hold. The market is testing new benchmarks, and uncertainty remains the only constant.