The US dollar roars, Bitcoin cashes. This is the scenario that takes shape while the Doxy dollar index has just crossed the 99.98 points mark, an unrivaled summit for two months. This bullish movement coincides with the decision of the federal reserve to maintain unchanged interest rates, sending a strong signal to the markets, but not necessarily favorable to bitcoin.
In short
- The DXY reaches a two -month summit, putting Bitcoin under pressure while the Fed maintains its unchanged interest rates.
- Despite a motionless Fed, the dollar explodes upwards, causing a drop in bitcoin and worrying the crypto markets.
- The strength of the US dollar complicates the bitcoin brute trajectory, reviving the old negative correlation between Doxy and BTC.
A motionless fed, a dollar in motion
Against all expectations, the Fed did not give in to political pressures. Despite the calls insistent for a drop in rates, including former President Donald Trump, who saw his heritage go up to 620 million, Jerome Powell remains marble. The rates remain anchored between 4.25 %and 4.50 %, with a resolutely cautious speech: inflation remains somewhat high and the objective remains set at 2 %.
In this context, Dxy leaps. It is not a simple technical rebound, but a strength of the dollar in the face of an uncertain macroeconomic environment. As often, monetary stability perceived in the United States acts as a magnet for capital. And when the dollar is strengthening, Bitcoin coughs.
Bitcoin and Dxy: an old monetary rivalry
This is not the first time that Bitcoin and the dollar have been in opposition. Historically, Dxy acts as an inverted barometer for risky active ingredients, Bitcoin in mind.
When the greenback climbs, investors are looking for less refuge in cryptos. This dynamic has not failed this time either: the BTC briefly dropped up to $ 115,760, before resuming some colors. A full summary of this evolution is also available in The analysis published by Beincryptto.
But this correction, although moderate, says a lot. The resilience of Bitcoin is not eternal, especially in the face of a Dxy which could aim for 101 points in the short term, according to Michael J. Kramer, recognized macro strategist. The market anticipates. And algorithms know it: a strong dollar often hurts crypto.
What future for Bitcoin in a pro-Dollar world?
The question is not so much to know if Bitcoin will flex, but how far it can resist. Because basically, the fundamentals of the BTC have not changed. The offer remains limited. Institutional demand is there, although prudent.
But what changes is the global context. If the FED continues to freeze the rates, and if the DXY continues its upward trajectory, the scenario of a bruise btc towards a historic breakthrough of 150,000 dollars becomes less obvious in the short term.
However, the crypto is not dead. It adapts. She cashes shocks. And sometimes, she benefits precisely from this monetary uncertainty to reposition herself as an alternative active. What could play in favor of Bitcoin is an unexpected deterioration of the job market or a sudden withdrawal in the equity markets, elements that could force the Fed to review its copy.
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