The dollar plunges, gold flies: the specter of an American Shutdown panics the markets

On the verge of total blockage, Washington shares the world markets. This Monday, September 29, the budget impasse at the US Congress revives the specter of a Shutdown on Wednesday, plunging investors and institutions in uncertainty. In an already uncertain climate, marked by the hesitations of the central banks and the fragility of the American indicators, this political blockage makes fear a major visibility. Investors are repositioned in an emergency, between leak towards the refuge values ​​and anticipation of macroeconomic turbulence.

The moving markets: star gold, the dollar loses ground

While the specter of a federal shutdown is becoming clearer in the United States, investors cautiously redirect their positions on the markets.

Gold has reached a new historic summit at 3,819 dollars an ounce, carried by a withdrawal from the dollar and by an intensification of concerns linked to the American budgetary dead end. In this context, the refuge values ​​are favored, while the currencies and the equity markets record more moderate movements.

Here is The main developments observed This Monday, September 29:

• Gold: the golden ounce has crossed a historic record, reflecting a strong demand for coverage in the face of political uncertainty;

• The dollar: The dollar index fell 0.2 %to 97.952. Facing the Yen, the greenback dropped 0.6 %, at ¥ 148.61, erasing part of its earnings from the previous week. The euro appreciated slightly, winning 0.1 % to reach $ 1,1709, but the currency remains in a low range;

• The equity markets: The overall MSCI All-World index increased by 0.16 %, signaling a prudent reaction to the global markets. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 won 0.3 %, heading for a monthly performance of +1.1 %, its third consecutive month of increase;

• Positive seasonality: analysts point out that the fourth quarter is historically favorable to actions, with the S&P 500 up in 74 % of cases over this period;

• Bond rates: the yields of treasury bills at 10 years old stabilized around 4.16 %, after being pushed up by a series of encouraging economic data the previous week.

These adjustments reflect a climate of vigilance. Investors thus favor a defensive approach, pending capital political decisions in Washington in the coming hours.

A government at the end

The challenge of the Shutdown goes beyond immediate considerations. If no agreement is reached by Wednesday, many federal agencies would stop operating, resulting in an interruption in the publication of economic data, in particular the report on the month of September.

In a note published on Monday, analysts of Bank of America warned: “If the Shutdown lasts beyond the Fed meeting, the latter will have to rely on private data for its monetary policy decisions”.

At this stage, the markets still anticipate a probability of 90 % for a drop in rate in October, and 65 % for a second in December. However, Bank of America tempers this optimism: “On the margin, this could reduce the probability of a reduction in October, but only marginally”.

The scenario of a prolonged blockage worries more socially. The same analysts point out that each week of Shutdown would cost approximately 0.1 point of GDP, a limited impact certainly, but likely to increase “If the government took the opportunity to carry out permanent layoffs”, with effects on employment and consumer confidence.

In this context, the next hours will be decisive. If the markets maintain an apparent form of calm, the combination of a possible statistical blackout, a private Fed of reliable benchmarks, and a tense political climate could quickly reshape the cards. An extension of the blocking could rekindle the attraction for alternative assets and non -correlated values, while the crypto market has just regained colors.