Seventeen years after the publication of the white paper by Satoshi Nakamoto, bitcoin is no longer a niche bet. It is a global asset worth $2,000 billion. However, on October 31, the market is turning the page on an upset “Uptober”. October closes in red for the first time since 2018. A signal to read carefully, without melodrama.
In brief
- Seventeen years after the white paper, bitcoin has become a $2 trillion macro asset.
- October ended in red, for the first time since 2018, against a backdrop of controlled deleveraging.
- Fundamentals and structural flows remain solid, suggesting a healthier recovery.
From PDF to planetary protocol
On October 31, 2008, Satoshi shared a nine-page document. Sober title: “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System”. The promise is contained in one sentence. Exchange value without an intermediary, while avoiding double spending thanks to proof-of-work. Simple on paper, revolutionary in its implications.
In 17 years, bitcoin has gone from forum at the trading floor. From cypherpunks to institutional treasurers. From DIY nodes to industrial data centers. The network has resisted forks, bans, cycles. It has gained in liquidity, in tools, in risk monitoring. In short, he grew up.
Today, the asset is held by funds, companies, sometimes states. It irrigates a complete industry: derivatives, custody, compliance, payment infrastructure. This framework changes the reading of the cycles. The excesses remain, but the shock absorbers exist. And that matters when the tide turns.
Red October for bitcoin: a cyclical hitch, not a structural problem
Historically, October favors bitcoin. It's called “Uptober” for a reason: on average, this month offered solid returns. This year, no. The price fell by more than 3% over the month. The positive series ends. First negative October close in seven years.
Should we see this as a reversal of trend? Not so fast. The decline took place against a backdrop of orderly deleveraging. Less leverage. Fewer fragile positions. Crypto markets saw a rapid decline leg, then cautious buybacks. The dominant narrative among desks is clear: “controlled deleveraging”. Painful in the short term, healthy for the future.
October closes down, yes. But bitcoin closes one chapter and opens another. The asset has survived much worse than the end of an “Uptober”. Maturity is measured in the way the market absorbs shocks. And from this point of view, 2025 looks less like 2018 than like a more equipped, more liquid, more professional version of the same game.
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