Bitcoin (BTC) continues to test the patience of traders while its price stagnates below $ 100,000. Between potential upward pressure and signs of weakness on the markets, here are the 5 key elements to watch this week.
5 signals to monitor Bitcoin this week: Danger?
This week promises to be decisive for Bitcoin, with 5 major events that could completely redefine its trajectory.
1. Squeeze shorts and an increase in bitcoin?
Since its historic mid-January record, Bitcoin has oscillated in a price range between $ 90,000 and $ 105,000, without managing to transform $ 100,000 into solid support. Some traders believe that the next movement could be a Squeeze shorts, forcing the selling positions to redeem itself and causing a brutal rise.
The CRYPNUEVO analyst underlines two key levels for Bitcoin: $ 93,300 in the event of a correction and $ 99,200 in the event of upward liquidation. The CJ trader, meanwhile, aims for $ 102,500 to $ 105,000 as short -term ceilingbut he warns that a return to $ 80,000 remains possible before a bullish recovery.
2. Fed and macroeconomic perspectives
This week is also marked by an responsible economic agenda, in particular with the publication of the minutes of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and new data on employment in the United States.
Persistent inflation has cooled hopes for lower interest rates in March. According to the latest data from CME Fedwatch Tool, the probabilities of a 0.25 % cut are only 2.5 %. A stricter monetary policy could therefore slow the appetite of investors for risky assets, including Bitcoin.
3. A lowering signal on exchange flows
Bitcoin flows between Spot platforms and derivatives show a worrying change in trend. The Inter-Ex-EXCHANGE FLOW PULSE (IFP) indicator has passed into a lower area, reporting a reduction in exposure to the risk of investors.
Historically, an increase in IFP precedes the vertices of the market, which has not yet taken place this year. According to analyst JA Maartunn, this situation could mark the start of a downward phase, although other indicators remain positive.
4. A request always strong for Bitcoin
Despite the absence of a marked upward trend, on-chain data show sustained demand. Analyst Darkfost highlights the intake and outgoing flow ratio of exchanges, whose mobile average over 30 days is in the area of strong accumulation.
This trend suggests that investors continue to accumulate bitcoin, which could support a short -term price resumption. However, some of these flows could be linked to asset transfers to negotiated stocks (ETF) and over -the -counter offices (OTC).
5. A market flirting with the “euphoria”?
The UNREALIZED profit/loss (NUPL) net indicator of long -term holders shows that the market enters a high profit phase. A NUPL greater than 0.75 traditionally indicates an euphoria which precedes market summits.
During the previous bullish cycles, this euphoria lasted 450 days in 2013 at only 228 days in 2021. If the trend is confirmed, this could indicate that the top of the current Haussier market is approaching.
A prudent and reactive approach
This week, Bitcoin traders and investors must therefore adopt a prudent and reactive approach. Faced with an uncertain market, it is essential to monitor key levels, avoid too aggressive positions and adjust strategies according to exchange flows and macroeconomic decisions, especially those of the Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin therefore crosses a phase of uncertainty, with a Squeeze short potential which could propel its price around 102,000 – $ 105,000, but also lowering signals on exchange flows. The evolution of inflation and monetary policy of the Fed will play a key role this week, and those to come.
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