The 4-year cycle of Bitcoin may not be dead: Glassnode

Despite the predictions announcing the death of the traditional four -year cycle of Bitcoin, Glassnode's analysis reveals disturbing signals. The recent evolution of prices echoes historical models, suggesting that the famous cycle could still dictate the pace of the market. But this time, the issues are different.

Glassnode defends the theory of the traditional bitcoin cycle the skeptics

The on-chain analysis company Glassnod has published a report which calls into question the widely spread that the famous four-year cycle of Bitcoin has disappeared.

According to his data, the action of Bitcoin prices echoes previous models, which suggests that, despite the development of institutional investors, fundamental cyclical mechanics has not yet been broken.

This study intervenes that Bitcoin is going through a consolidation phase after registering a new historic summit at 124,128 dollars on August 14.

Since this peak, the crypto fell by around 8.3 %, now evolving around 113,940 dollars. Far from seeing a sign of lasting weakness, Glassnode considers on the contrary that this correction is part of the traditional logic of the cycle.

On-chain indicators, however, confirm short-term tensions. The profits of long -term holders – those who have been keeping their bitcoins for more than 155 days – now reach levels “comparable to past euphoric phases”. This distribution movement suggests a market that could approach the end of its cycle.

At the same time, institutional demand gives signs of shortness of breath. The ETF Bitcoin Spot have recorded net outings of $ 975 million in the last four sessions, According to Farside Investors.

This withdrawal of demand led to a tilting of capital to more speculative bets: the open interest in altcoins briefly reached a record of 60 billion dollars, before falling back.

The battle of forecasts, October 2025 or extended cycle?

If Glassnode defends the idea that the quadrennial cycle of Bitcoin remains relevant, the question of the calendar divides the crypto community deeply.

Analyst Rekt Capital recalled in July that following the 2020 model, the market would probably reach its peak in October 2025, around 550 days after the Halving in April 2024.

This hypothesis is based on our technical analysis of August 20. Despite a weekly correction limited to 1.5 %, volumes remain supported, reaching $ 48 billion (+34 %).

The background trend remains upward in the medium and long term, although the short term shows a shortness of breath, with a neutralized dynamic which could announce a stabilization phase.

Faced with this cyclical readinga growing part of experts advances a radically different vision.

For Matt Hougan, director of investments at Bitwise, the Bitcoin cycle “is dead” and the real increase phase would only arise in 2026. According to him, the importance of halving decreases with each iteration, while monetary policy cycles, especially that of interest rates, play an increasingly structuring role.

Investor Jason Williams shares this perspective by emphasizing the unprecedented impact of institutional adoption. He recalls that the 100 largest companies hold nearly a million bitcoins.

According to Bitcointreasuries.net, listed companies alone have more than $ 112 billion in BTC. A critical mass that could redefine market rules and weaken the historical logic of cycles.

The debate on the survival of the four -year cycle therefore reflects two opposite visions: that of a market still guided by its past patterns and that of a new era dominated by institutional flows. The close future of Bitcoin will say if history is repeated … or if it is written otherwise.