A year after its peak at $103,900, bitcoin faces a new challenge: the imminent rise in Japanese rates. While the markets fear an unwind of the yen carry trade, the real risks for BTC lie elsewhere. Analysis of a tense December, between Japanese anticipation and American relief.
In brief
- The BOJ is expected to raise its rates in December 2025, but this decision, already integrated, limits the risks of a brutal shock to bitcoin.
- Despite Japanese pressure, bitcoin benefits from the fall in American rates, which mitigates the impact of a possible unwind of the Yen carry trade.
- The threat to bitcoin does not come from Japan, but from a change of heart by the Fed, regulation or a slowdown in institutional adoption.
BOJ: a rate hike expected in a few days
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is preparing to raise its rates on December 18 and 19, 2025, a decision widely anticipated. The markets are counting on an increase of 0.25 points, bringing the key rate to 0.75%, a level not seen since 1995. Yields on Japanese 10-year bonds are now close to 1.95%, more than 100 basis points above the official projected rate. A probability of 76% is now set, according to market data.
However, unlike August 2025, where a surprise increase caused widespread panic, this time investors seem prepared. The yen, although slightly appreciated (+0.03% on December 9), remains under structural pressure. Analysts emphasize that this monetary normalization will surprise no one, and the shock will therefore be limited. Speculators have reduced their short positions on the yen since February, limiting the risk of a sudden unwind.
Bitcoin between two fires: Japanese rates VS drop in American rates
Bitcoin, often correlated with global liquidity, is subject to a double influence. On the one hand, rising Japanese rates could reduce the yen's appeal as a cheap financing currency, weighing on risky assets. On the other hand, the Fed's recent rate cut injects liquidity into the system, easing the pressure. In mid-December, BTC hovered around $87,500, far from the $103,900 reached a year earlier.
However, the dynamic is different: in 2024, American rates remained high, suffocating the markets. In 2025, their decline provides a cushion. Bitcoin ETFs, despite record outflows in November, benefit from a more favorable environment. If an unwind of yen carry trade could lead to one-off sellingthe impact would be limited by the American context. The real test for BTC will be the ability of US liquidity to offset the Japanese tightening. As Ignacio Aguirre, CMO at Bitget, thinks:
The rise in Japanese rates contrasts with the Fed's expected cuts in 2026, creating increased volatility which often opens attractive accumulation windows for long-term investors.
The real risks for bitcoin do not come from Japan
If the yen carry trade attracts attention, the most serious threats to bitcoin come from elsewhere. First risk: an unexpected turnaround by the Fed in 2026, which would call into question the rate cut scenario. Second issue: regulation, with increasing pressure on ETFs and stablecoins.
In addition, institutional adoption, often presented as a driver, could also become a brake. Finally, competition from traditional assets, such as gold or tech stocks, could divert capital if bond yields become too attractive. In the short term, BTC could consolidate between $85,000 and $95,000. In the longer term, its future will depend less on Japan than on the ability of the United States to maintain an accommodating environment.
As 2026 looms, eyes are turning to the BOJ. Bitcoin has already proven its resilience to monetary shocks. This time, its ability to reinvent itself will determine its role in the financial landscape of tomorrow. And you, do you think that the next announcements from the BOJ will be beneficial or not for BTC?
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