Bitcoin is going through a period of unprecedented excitement, with a price beyond the symbolic mark of $100,000. In this context of spectacular rise, a major deadline is fast approaching: December 27. Bitcoin options worth a record $19.8 billion will expire. This event constitutes an important step for the market, because it is likely to redefine short-term price dynamics and influence the strategies of investors, whether individual or institutional.
Exhalation under high tension
Bitcoin investors are bracing for a major deadline, scheduled for December 27 at 8 a.m. UTC, that could redefine the balance of power in the market. On that day, bitcoin options worth a whopping $19.8 billion will expire. In a context where bitcoin has recorded a spectacular rise of 68% over the last three months, bearish investors have seen their forecasts thwarted, which has rendered the majority of “put” (sell) options ineffective. To date, active put options represent only $7.8 billion, compared to $12 billion for call options, which reflects strong momentum in favor of bullish investors.
This situation sheds light on the central role of trading platforms in this deadline. Deribit, the undisputed leader, holds 72% of the options market, ahead of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Binance, which represent 12% and 9% respectively. This concentration reflects the growing dominance of players specializing in crypto-asset derivatives. In addition, a critical threshold seems to be emerging around $100,000. At this level, many put options lose all value, strengthening the position of the bulls. The latter are now aiming to cross the $105,000 mark, a scenario which could ensure them considerable gains. At the same time, the bears hope to bring the price below $95,000 to limit their losses, which turns this deadline into a real standoff in the market.
The impact of institutions and regulators
Institutional investors play a key role in the current dynamic around bitcoin. MicroStrategy, a major player in this segment, strengthened its position thanks to the acquisition of 21,550 BTC at an average price of $98,783. This accumulation strategy is accompanied by the entry of other large players, such as MARA Holdings, which acquired 11,744 BTC in the space of a few days. At the same time, bitcoin-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows of $4.5 billion over a period of just 12 days. This renewed institutional interest reflects growing confidence in the asset's long-term potential. In addition, it helps to stabilize fluctuations in its price and consolidate the upward trend.
At the same time, regulatory debates are intensifying in the United States, which reveals a desire to include bitcoin in a national economic strategy. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve with 1 million BTC. This project, designed to anticipate an increased role for crypto in the global economy, is accompanied by similar measures in certain states. Texas, for example, is considering integrating bitcoin into its reserves. This state indicates that no public funds will be used for these acquisitions. If such initiatives were to succeed, they could lastingly transform the perception of bitcoin, which would consolidate it as a strategic reserve asset and strengthen its legitimacy in the eyes of institutional and individual investors.
The December 27 bitcoin options expiration is a key moment for the market. A close above $105,000 could consolidate bullish momentum, propelling bullish sentiment towards 2025. Conversely, a decline below $95,000 would provide bears with an opportunity to temporarily regain control. More than a simple clash between buyers and sellers, this deadline reflects the strategic evolution of the crypto market, where the rise of institutions and regulatory issues are redefining the rules of the game.
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