Real estate: the recovery is confirmed in France, but remains fragile

After two years of asphyxiation, the French real estate market begins a measurable recovery. Ported by the drop in rates and the stabilization of prices, the first concrete signals are confirmed in FNAIM figures and the field observations relayed by Laforêt. The wait -and -see attitude gradually gives way to a recovery, certainly still fragile, but tangible. In an uncertain economic environment, this thrill gives air to a long paralyzed sector. It remains to be seen whether this dynamic can be durable.

Buyers' confidence returns: sales are going upwards

Loans explode again in the real estate sector in France. “The market finds colors”, Loïc Cantin was delightedPresident of the National Real Estate Federation (FNAIM), during a cyclical point organized on June 18. After two and a half years of crisis, the last figures reveal a concrete restart of the old residential market.

Sales increased by 2.5 % over one year to the end of April 2025, or 892,000 notarial acts. Even if this figure remains below the peak of 1.2 million sales recorded in 2021, FNAIM is now table on an 11 % rebound by the end of the year, with 940,000 transactions expected for December.

This revival of activity is directly linked to an improvement in financing conditions. In April 2025, the average rate for a mortgage (excluding renegotiations) stood at 3.13 %, a drop from one point over a year and a half.

This development, coupled with a gradual return of the banking offer, has enabled a significant recovery in mortgage. Evidenced by the following figures:

• 12.6 billion euros in housing credits were granted in April 2025, against 7 billion in January 2024;
• The overall demand began to start on the rise, carried by a return of confidence from buyers;
• Households again have an improved purchase capacity, promoting the revival of frozen real estate projects.

So many elements that confirm that the recovery is no longer a hypothesis, but a cycle that sets in.

A still fragile and segmented market

The rise in transaction volumes is not accompanied by a return to the outbreak of the prices observed before 2022. On the contrary, “The rhythms of rise in real estate prices join those of inflation”said Loïc Cantin.

Over a year, the old prices display a moderate decrease of 0.6 %, where they still retreated -3.2 %in 2024. If this stability is perceived as a sign of market maturity, local situations remain very contrasting: Nantes (-13 %), Lyon (-12 %) and Bordeaux (-8 %) over three years have seen their values.

On the request side, the signals are encouraging, but heterogeneous. Overall demand increased by 15 % in one year, driven mainly by Secundo-Accevants (50 % of transactions), followed by first-time buyers (33 %) and investors (17 %).

However, professionals warn against another potential imbalance. If buyers are back, sellers become more demanding. Indeed, the share of goods sold after negotiations increased from 91 % to 86 % in one year, and could fall to 75 % by the end of this year.

In parallel with these traditional dynamics, another trend is installing discreetly: the introduction of cryptos, in particular bitcoin, in real estate transactions. If this practice remains marginal in France, certain investors, notably international, now favor the purchase of goods via these assets converted into euros.

This approach seduces in particular in regions with high tourist attractiveness or advantageous taxation, where crypto buyers, often young and mobile, seek to diversify their heritage. For innovative agencies, this represents a new typology of buyers to be captured.

These adjustments, although healthy, also reflect a form of latent instability, fueled by several factors of uncertainty. Among them, the partial suspension of the Maprimerenov 'system questions the dynamics of renovation of the old park, while geopolitical tensions and the political environment can quickly reflect the momentum observed in recent months. If the current trajectory is confirmed, the market could move towards a new balance, but it is early to scream victory.