This day could be a turning point for the war in Ukraine. While Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have to talk by phone, everyone is preparing their land. If Trump juggles between diplomatic flattery and supply of weapons to Zelensky, Putin plays another card: that of the economy. He has just authorized certain Western investors to sell their frozen Russian titles, a decision that could upset the international financial market.
Putin authorizes the sale of Russian titles to Western investors
While a war between Trump and Putin was imaginable, to everyone's surprise, The master of the Kremlin signed a decree allowing Western funds Franklin Templeton, Jane Street and GMO of Sell their Russian titles blocked since 2022. A first since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. However, these transactions will not be direct: They will have to go through an intermediarythe New York Hedge Fund 683 Capital Partners, before being bought by Russian entities close to power.
For what such a financial assembly ? Two hypotheses : Protect Western sellers from sanctions and guarantee a generous commission at the intermediary.
The titles concerned represent 500 billion rubles ($ 6.4 billion)detained on “type-C” accounts, frozen since March 2023. These accounts, set up by the Russian government, allow us to Keep foreign funds under strict controlpreventing any withdrawal without the approval of the Kremlin.
This apparently harmless decision is part of a broader context. On the one hand, it allows Russia to Control the repatriation of these assets While offering investors a regulated exit door. On the other hand, she intervenes at a strategic moment, on the eve of the phone call with Trump.
The Kremlin seeks to Reposition yourself on the world economic chessboardby sending an opening signal to international markets. But does this sudden generosity hide a more calculated maneuver?
Negotiation between Putin and Trump: a ceasefire at the price of concessions?
THE call between Putin and Trump could well be A diplomatic turning point. Officially, there is talk of a ceasefire in Ukraine. In reality, the discussion seems to go far beyond. Trump has already suggested that Ukraine may have to give up certain strategic regions to get peace.
“” We are going to talk about land, power plants … Many things are already discussed. »»
But Putin does not let go of nothing without compensation. Its main requirement? L'Immediate stop of American weapons deliveries in kyiv. A request that divides Washington and worries Europeans. Some fear that this does not allow Moscow to rearm in peace.
Meanwhile, Trump tries to negotiate by putting on the U tablen temporary freezing of Ukraine membership at NATO.
The current negotiations raise several questions: is Trump ready to trade Ukrainian sovereignty against a tacit pact with the Kremlin? What benefits is he hoping to draw from this agreement for the United States? And above all, is Trump's word has any value?
As a surfer tweeted it:
“” Any ceasefire agreement negotiated by Trump is not worth the paper on which it is written. Ask the Palestinians. »»
The shadow of geopolitical bargaining hangs over these negotiations.
The Russian economy under pressure: towards a major crisis?
While these negotiations occupy diplomatic spheres, the Russian economy flicker and faces major challenges. If the Kremlin displays a facade optimism, several indicators show increasing fragility.
The industrial sector is particularly affected by The increase in interest rates, which reached a summit of 21 % in 2024. A situation which puts under pressure of many companies already weakened by international sanctions.
- 20 % of manufacturing companies devote more than two thirds of their profits to the reimbursement of their debts;
- More than 50 % of mining companies were in deficit in 2024, unheard of since the 1990s;
- 30 % of road carriers risk bankruptcy in 2025.
These figures do not deceive. However, Russian banks do not seem to be alarmed. According to economist Sergei Skatov” If the situation was also catastrophic, they should have constituted additional reserves to cover the losses ».
In other words, the Kremlin could have a greater room for maneuver than it seems. But until when?
The government is focusing on grants and nationalizations to avoid a wave of bankruptcies, But these solutions have their limits. If the financial pressure increases and access to markets is closing more, Russia may have to choose between its economy and continue the war effort.
The situation therefore becomes a life -size test for the resilience of the Russian economic model under sanctions.
While Putin and Trump are about to discuss a ceasefire, another battle is playing behind the scenes: that of investment control and financial stability. One certainty remains: Putin supports Bitcoin, but no question for him to follow Trump in his idea of making it a national reserve.
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