The market is once again starting to test the strength of bitcoin's rebound. The Polymarket and Kalshi prediction platforms now assign a high probability to BTC falling below $55,000 in 2026, while American spot Bitcoin ETFs are diving back into the red. Such a sequence revives doubts about the strength of the rebound.
In brief
- Prediction markets see bitcoin falling back below $55,000 in 2026.
- The bearish scenario is gaining ground on Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Strategy remains strong, despite rising market risk.
- The $55,000 threshold becomes a central marker of the fragility of the rebound.
Prediction markets abruptly review downside risk
On the prediction markets, the scenario of a bitcoin below $55,000 is no longer a marginal hypothesis. “The price of bitcoin has between 65% and 71% chance of falling below $55,000 by December 31”according to prediction markets, linking this rise in risk to a market that lacks bullish catalysts and remains exposed to macroeconomic uncertainties.
This threshold of $55,000 weighs even more heavily on the debate as it marks a break with the levels observed earlier in the year. Indeed, the low point for bitcoin in 2026 is currently at $59,940, reached on February 6, and the last time the BTC/USD pair fell below $55,000 dates back to February 2024. In other words, this decline is now massively integrated by Polymarket and Kalshi traders.
- On Polymarket, punters give around 71% probability for BTC to fall below $55,000 before December 31, an increase of 13 points in one day;
- The same market gives a 59% chance of a drop below $50,000 and a 46% chance of a decline to $45,000 before the end of the year;
- On Kalshi, traders see 71% chance of a return below $60,000, 65% below $55,000, and 31% probability of a fall to $40,000;
- Some analysts believe that the downtrend remains active, to the point of qualifying the rebound towards $76,000 as a bull trap.
Strategy holds up, ETFs plunge back into the red
The Strategy firm is often observed as a barometer of institutional conviction on bitcoin. Thus, the recent drop towards $69,000 brought the price below the company's average purchase price of $75,696.
Despite this, punters do not anticipate a quick capitulation. The probability of a bitcoin sale by Strategy in 2026 remains less than 15%, which Polymarket puts more precisely at 13% for the December 31, 2026 deadline.
At the same time, traders continue to bet on continued buying, with a near 96% probability of seeing the company announce over 800,000 BTC held by the end of 2026, as Michael Saylor's company already holds 761,000 BTC after purchasing 22,337 BTC for around $1.6 billion.
The third signal highlighted concerns American spot Bitcoin ETFs. They returned to the red this Wednesday. Data from Farside Investors confirm that as of March 19, the daily balance stood at -90.2 million dollars, with -38.3 million for IBIT, -26.0 million for FBTC, -17.2 million for BITB and -15.2 million for ARKB.
Additionally, the segment's largest ETF saw $34 million in outflows as market sentiment fell. “extreme fear”. This sequence does not prove, in itself, that a move below $55,000 is a given. On the other hand, it shows that at the moment when the prediction markets reinforce their bearish scenario, the peripheral signals go in the same direction.
Bitcoin is caught between market caution and lack of catalysts. The Fed is maintaining its rates in the face of geopolitical tensions, a decision which fuels the wait-and-see attitude, weakens the rebound and leaves downside risk at the center of the game.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
