PlanB estimates that the current cycle could take the average price of Bitcoin to $500,000

The bitcoin market is reviving the debate around its growth cycles. Indeed, analyst PlanB estimates that the price of bitcoin could reach an average of $500,000 during the current cycle. This estimate is based on updating its Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, often used to analyze the scarcity of BTC. Thus, this new projection is attracting the attention of crypto investors and market analysts.

Bitcoin Price Could Reach $500,000 Under Stock-to-Flow Model

While bitcoin just fell 2% on Sunday evening, PlanB recently updated its Stock-to-Flow model, used to analyze the scarcity of bitcoin and the evolution of its market cycle. According to this analysis, the price of bitcoin could reach an average close to $500,000 during the period following the halving of 2024.

First, this model is based on the relationship between the available supply and the annual production of new BTC. Each halving reduces the creation of bitcoin, which gradually decreases the supply on the market. Historically, these events have often preceded phases of marked increases in BTC.

The chart published by PlanB also shows that the price of bitcoin often follows a trajectory close to certain long-term indicators. We observe in particular the 200-week moving average and the realized price, two benchmarks used by many analysts to assess the market trend.

According to this analysis, several elements appear on the graph:

• BTC price generally stays above the 200-week moving average during bull cycles;
• Periods of euphoria often correspond to a high RSI, signaling strong market activity;
• The Stock-to-Flow model projects an average of around $500,000 for the 2024-2028 cycle.

Thus, this graph illustrates the progression of bitcoin in successive stages after each halving. However, these projections remain statistical models. The actual evolution of the price of Bitcoin will also depend on market demand and macroeconomic conditions.

What factors could influence the price of Bitcoin in this cycle?

This new estimate fuels discussions around bitcoin cycles and the evolution of the crypto market. Indeed, many investors follow these models to better understand long-term trends.

Furthermore, several factors could influence the trajectory of the price of bitcoin in the coming years:

• the gradual reduction of supply after each halving;
• the rise in institutional demand for bitcoin.

However, it should be remembered that statistical models do not guarantee market developments. The price of bitcoin remains sensitive to several external elements.

For example, macroeconomic conditions, global liquidity and regulatory decisions can change market dynamics. Additionally, BTC volatility may cause temporary deviations from theoretical projections.

In this context, investors are carefully observing on-chain data, flows to exchange platforms and movements of major portfolios.

A Bitcoin cycle still developing

For the moment, the bitcoin market continues to evolve in a cycle that remains incomplete. The projections established on the Stock-to-Flow model will therefore have to be observed over a longer period.

However, several indicators suggest that the market could further evolve in the years to come. At the same time, volatility remains high and extreme fear is once again sweeping the crypto market, reflecting investors' current uncertainty. The next movements in the price of bitcoin will thus make it possible to measure whether the estimates put forward by PlanB really come close to the trajectory of BTC.