The SEC has been receiving requests for Bitcoin ETFs for ten years without responding. Will BlackRock change the game?
BlackRock wants an ETF
Bitcoin has appreciated almost 20% since BlackRock surprised everyone by filing an application to create a spot ETF on June 15.
The absence of ETFs means that several tens of billions of dollars have been invested in substitute structures. In particular trusts such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
There are also ETFs based on futures contracts and spot ETFs outside the United States. Or MicroStrategy which holds massive reserves of bitcoin. Buying MSTR stock is like investing in Bitcoin.
These products represent $29 billion and are nowhere near as convenient as a spot ETF. For NYDIGa BlackRock ETF would have many advantages:
-The protections granted to investors for ETFs
-The prestige of BlackRock and the iShares franchise
– Familiarity with buying and selling methods through brokers
-Simplicity in position reporting, risk assessment and tax reporting
-Better liquidity compared to private funds
-Potentially lower costs (certainly compared to GBTC)
Comparison with the arrival of the gold-backed ETF
Gold ETFs are worth more than $210 billion. Almost half are in North America.
Although substantial, this sum represents only 1.6% of all the gold in the world, or about 13 trillion dollars. That is to say 24 times more than Bitcoin (~520 billion $).
By the way, central banks own 17.1% of all gold, compared to 46% for jewelry.
Conversely, bitcoin is not held by central banks and is not used to make jewelry. As a result, a larger share of BTC is already held in various funds (4.9%), compared to 1.6% for the Barbarian Relic.
Which makes NYDIG say:
“The numbers are striking in absolute terms: over $210 billion is invested in gold funds, compared to just $29 billion in bitcoin funds. Furthermore, bitcoin being approximately 3.6 times more volatile than gold, this means that at equivalent volatility, investors would need 3.6 times less bitcoins to obtain an equivalent risk exposure. »
NYDIG therefore estimates that an ETF could result in the arrival of $30 billion in potential Bitcoin ETFs.
Impact of ETF on the value of Bitcoin
NYDIG scenarios are based on a 10x money multiplier. That is, every dollar placed in an ETF could result in a $10 increase in bitcoin capitalization.
[Il n’y a pas de magie, la différence de 9 dollars viendra du reste des investisseurs du monde entier qui investiront après avoir été rassurés par l’ETF de BlackRock]
At the high end, $100 billion invested in Bitcoin ETFs would induce a $51,000 rise in Bitcoin. The latter would then be worth more than $80,000 per BTC.
Still according to the same prediction (10x), an influx of $50 billion into ETFs would not result in BTC at $55,000.
For this, the SEC would already have to approve the ETF. Knowing that any delay is ultimately good news. It gives the masses more time to get ahead of Wall Street.
Receive a digest of news in the world of cryptocurrencies by subscribing to our new service of daily and weekly so you don’t miss any of the essential Tremplin.io!
