NATO led by Germany thanks to Trump

With Trump likely to win the US election, the US may begin to disengage from NATO. In that case, faced with the Russian peril, Germany would have to pursue a policy of massive rearmament to control the Russian bear.

A reorientation of NATO

The United States, which was supposed to be the guarantor of stability in Europe, is now the great power the most unstable in the world.

Trump's likely return to the presidency will likely mark the end of US support for Ukraine, and at least partial disengagement from NATO and the transatlantic alliance.

According to interviews with former Trump national security officials and defense experts likely to serve in a second Trump term, It is unlikely that the latter will leave NATO out of the blue. But even if he doesn't officially leave the organization, This does not mean that NATO would survive a second Trump term intact.

In exchange for continued US participation, Trump would not only expect European countries that they radically increase their spending on NATO, but he would also undertake a “radical reorientation” of NATO.

The United States would maintain its nuclear umbrella over Europe by maintaining its air power and bases in Germany, England and Turkey, as well as their naval forces.

Meanwhile, the bulk of the infantry, armor, logistics and artillery would eventually pass from American to European hands.

This change would involve significantly reduce America's security role in Europe.

NATO faces the Chinese peril

Trump would like to maintain NATO, but with a much more active Europe involved in defense spending. He is aware that Europe is a considerable asset in the face of the Russian-Chinese alliance.

The atrophy of the U.S. defense industrial base, production capacity, and defense budget means that America is simply not capable of standing up to Russia and China alone.

And since China is the biggest threat, Most American resources should be allocated to East Asia. This is simply the brutal logic of the relative balance of economic and military power.

The return of Germany?

The partial withdrawal of the United States makes Germany is the most important country in Europe economically and militarily. With 83 million inhabitants, Germany is the most populous state in the EU.

It represents more thana fifth of EU GDP and around a quarter of EU manufacturing output.

THE level of technological sophistication Germany's output, at least as far as manufactured goods are concerned, is probably higher than that of other European countries.

Although its economy is more manufacturing-oriented than almost all other European countries, Germany also manages to have a higher standard of living than other major European economies (and higher than the UK).

This is not to say that Germany is the leader of the EU or NATO. The EU does not have a single leader, and With the US disengagement, NATO has none either.

But Germany is so big and so important that if it does not step up and exercise some form of leadership within these organizations, these will tend to be rudderless and inert.

Germany is no longer the villain of Europe.

The Nazis were the most destructive and infamous regime of the entire modern era so far. But today's Germany is not the Germany of the Nazis. Not only are the individuals guilty of Nazi atrocities dead and missing, but The modern German state is founded on liberal values ​​that are completely contrary to everything the Nazis stood for.

Russia vs. NATO

The second thing that Germans should realize is that Germany is already at war, not a war she chose herself, but a war that she cannot choose to avoid.

Recently, the Russia attempted to assassinate Rheinmetall CEO, Germany's leading arms manufacturer. Russians allegedly sabotaged a German arms factory in May, and Germany has arrested other Russians who are believed to be planning further sabotage. Russia is also waging a constant cyber war against Germany.

The Russians still regard Germany as an enemy and a threat, and are determined to weaken it economically and politically, no matter what Germany does.

The Germans are, rightly, very reluctant to take on Russia, especially after the disaster of the world wars of a century ago. But Russia is not going to give Germany a choice. Germany can stand up and fight back, or it can simply lose.

Germans should not imagine that Putin or his successors will be content to conquer Ukraine. Ukraine, Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe do not constitute a buffer that will guarantee Germany's security. On the contrary, they constitute potential fuel for the Russian war machine.

Russia, ready to invade Germany?

The Russian Empire has always functioned by enslaving conquered peoples and forcing them to participate in new wars of conquest.

Ukrainians in the conquered territories were razed en masse and sent to the front to fight against the still free Ukrainians. If the rest of Ukraine is conquered, a similar process will occur: Poles, Estonians, Moldovans and whoever else is next on Putin's menu will find themselves fighting.

And if Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe fall, the Germans will find themselves fighting enslaved Poles, Estonians and Moldovans.

In other words, the more peoples Russia is allowed to conquer, the stronger it becomes. If the USSR and the former Russian Empire were such formidable enemies, This was because they could count on large numbers of subjugated Poles, Ukrainians, other Europeans and Central Asians to swell the ranks of their armies and take on the brunt of the fighting.

Germany to save NATO?

The stakes are high. If Germany does not take the lead, Europe will fragment, decline and will fall under the influence of Russia.

Germany must rearm seriously and vigorously – It must spend at least 4% of its GDP on the army, not 2%, and become Ukraine's leading supplier of arms.

This will require some short-term economic sacrifices, higher deficits and cuts in social spending.

German leaders must understand the urgency of the situation they face. The United States has been the great distant protector of Germany and Europe since the end of World War II. Germany, and by extension Europe, must now defend itself, or fall under Russia’s thumb.