In the midst of stock market turmoil, Michael Saylor persists in his bold strategy. As MSTR stock plummets and regulators threaten to reclassify Strategy, the CEO sends a clear signal: further Bitcoin buying is looming. But can this unfailing determination withstand market pressure and investor doubts?
In brief
- Michael Saylor teases new bitcoin purchase despite MSTR stock falling 43% in 2025.
- Strategy holds 671,268 BTC (3.2% of the total supply) but its mNAV ratio near 0.93 is dangerously approaching the critical zone of 1.
- An additional 15-20% drop in bitcoin could force Strategy to sell its BTC reserves.
Saylor's tease: a new purchase of bitcoin approaching?
On December 21, 2025, Michael Saylor posted a cryptic message on X: “ Green Dots ₿eget Orange Dots “. A direct reference to the SaylorTracker visualization, often followed by an SEC filing confirming a massive purchase of bitcoin. This pattern, repeated throughout the year, created an almost ritualistic expectation among investors. Each teaser is now interpreted as an announcement of an imminent acquisition, generally made official on Monday morning.
This method of communicationboth cryptic and calculated, reinforces Saylor's image as a tireless bitcoin strategist. However, it comes in a tense context: MSCI is considering removing Strategy from its global indices, believing that the company functions more as an investment vehicle than as an operating company. A decision which could further weaken MSTR's position on traditional markets.
Strategy: a purchase on hold despite the fall of MSTR
MSTR stock has lost 43% of its value since the start of the year, a collapse that partly reflects bitcoin's 30% decline since its peak in October 2025. Yet Strategy continues to accumulate BTC, bringing its reserves to 671,268 BTC, or 3.2% of the total supply. These purchases, often financed by share issues, raise questions about shareholder dilution and the sustainability of the model.
The latest purchases to date, such as the 10,624 BTC acquired at the beginning of December for $963 million, illustrate this determination. The company has even set aside a reserve of $1.44 billion to avoid liquidating its assets if necessary. A precaution which shows the limits of the strategy: each new issue of shares increases the pressure on the price of MSTR.
Bitcoin in the red zone: Will Strategy be forced to sell its BTC?
According to Phong Le, Strategy will only sell its bitcoins under one condition. Which ? An mNAV ratio below 1, combined with a drying up of access to capital. A situation which, if it materializes, would send a disastrous signal to the market. At $88,000 at the end of 2025, bitcoin maintains Strategy's mNAV ratio just above 0.93, close to the critical threshold of 1.
An additional fall of 15 to 20% in bitcoin would be enough to tip it over, forcing the company to consider BTC sales to avoid financial asphyxiation. However, Saylor is banking on a market rebound or new fundraising to avoid the unthinkable. But with the price already down 30% since October, the room for maneuver is reduced. If bitcoin dips below $75,000, Strategy could find itself back against the wall, transforming its strategy “hold” into an increasingly risky bet.
Michael Saylor's bitcoin strategy remains a risky bet in an uncertain market. As buy signals multiply, one question remains: Can Strategy keep its promise to never sell, even in the face of adversity? In your opinion, is this massive accumulation of BTC by Strategy a strength or a weakness for the market?
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