So where is bitcoin going at the start of the year? After a year 2025 that was as eventful as it was volatile, the crypto community is starting to dream of a new peak. But between liquidity injections, changing regulations and institutional strategies, the trajectory remains uncertain. What are the good signals to watch for? Where are the traps located? One thing is certain: 2026 will not be a year like any other.
In brief
- The Fed is starting to buy its debt again, a signal of the imminent return of quantitative easing.
- Crypto ETFs attract Harvard, Vanguard and sovereign funds from the Middle East, big institutional rise.
- Bitcoin becomes less volatile, it attracts cautious portfolios while remaining a speculative value.
- The possibility of a GOP sweep in 2026 strongly influences regulatory expectations in the crypto sector.
Rates at the floor, liquidity afloat: the golden scenario for Bitcoin
Towards a historic bull run in 2026? Abra boss Bill Barhydt sees it coming a flood of liquidity boosted by American monetary policy. In a muscular exchange on Schwab Network, he blurted out:
Nothing stops this train. This generally refers to money printing, debt servicing, the massive injections of liquidity that we have seen in recent years. And I think we'll see a ton of that in 2026.
The man evokes a discreet but real return of quantitative easing, beginning in 2025 with bond purchases by the Fed. In mirror image, interest rates would fall and demand for public debt would erode. Result ? An environment where risk assets are regaining color, with bitcoin in the lead.
The correlation with tech is in full force. There have been times when Nvidia or Tesla were more volatile than bitcoin, Barhydt notes. And for good reason: BTC has stabilized around 30% volatility, compared to 60% historically. Enough to reassure investors looking for high returns but fewer shocks.
Crypto and institutions: (almost) perfect marriages
The crypto ecosystem no longer only appeals to enthusiasts, but also to financial powers. In the same show, John Ha of Swan Bitcoin notes a massive shift in buyer profiles:
Harvard, a $50 billion endowment fund from the Ivy League. Their largest declared public position is Bitcoin. Sovereign funds in the Middle East also own a significant share of Bitcoin.
Same story with Vanguard, or the sovereign funds of the Middle East. Everyone first goes through ETFs, considered simpler and safer for new entrants. But this gateway could become a staircase towards the purchase of “hard” BTC.
Another phenomenon observed: “Bitcoin Treasury Companies”. Companies are making BTC a strategic asset. Strategy leads the way, but others appear… and disappear just as quickly. It remains to be seen which ones will hold up. For Ha, adoption will strengthen. Because even if the ETF is more reassuring, some will then want the “real” bitcoin.
At the same time, other cryptos benefit indirectly from this institutional craze. Wallets are often opened as a duo: BTC, then ETH… and why not Solana, or the L2s of the moment.
Bitcoin under high tension: what if everything rested on the midterms?
If the economy suggests warmer skies, politics could well play spoilsport. Michael Terpin, BTC pioneer, does not share the ambient optimism. According to him, bitcoin could bottom at $60,000 at the end of 2026.
His main worry? Michael Terpin believes that any electoral outcome other than a total Republican victory would compromise a favorable regulatory climate for crypto. Clearly, if the Republicans do not win both chambers, the regulatory climate will remain tense for the crypto sphere.
Currently, on Polymarket, the odds of a GOP sweep cap at 19%. And the history of American midterm elections often shows a divided Congress. Crypto investors therefore have to deal with a major political variable.
The community remains shared. On the one hand, approved ETFs, growing adoption. On the other, threats of restrictive laws, investigations into certain platforms, and an ever more present financial policeman. Nothing is decided.
Figures, signals and benchmarks to remember
- Bitcoin price is trading at $87,524 at the time of writing;
- The Fed has been launching a debt buyback policy since the end of 2025;
- Harvard displays BTC as the first public asset in its portfolio;
- Crypto ETFs are gaining legitimacy, including at Vanguard;
- The GOP sweep has only a 19% chance according to Polymarket.
When some already see a six-digit bitcoin, the bells do not ring in unison. On Polymarket, bettors are turning away from the hypothesis of BTC reaching $150,000 by 2026. The trajectory remains uncertain, as do the balance of power that will influence it.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
