Bitcoin could have a difficult year in 2026!

While the market continues to struggle, another transformation, more discreet but decisive, is taking shape. In this new year, bitcoin will no longer seek to seduce traders. It will integrate, step by step, into the real economy. If the price falls, uses increase. A pivotal year is dawning, where the fall in prices contrasts with the silent rise of payment technologies. BTC is no longer waiting for the next bull run to exist: it is finally becoming an everyday tool.

2026, the year of disillusionment?

After a year 2025 marked by exuberance and bullish projections of up to $250,000, bitcoin is preparing to conclude a period of strong disillusionment.

According to Michael Terpin, a historic investor in the sector, BTC could hit a low point around $60,000 in the fourth quarter of 2026. “The end of 2026 will be an ideal time to buy, as market dips driven by fear will gradually give way to a massive wave of buying in 2028 and 2029, following the next halving which could cause a supply shock”, declared-he.

This prospect undermines hopes of an immediate rebound, and above all weakens one of the pillars of crypto analysis: the four-year post-halving cycle.

Here are the key points to remember about this market dynamic:

• The historical pattern of the four-year cycle appears broken. Bitcoin is on track to end 2025 at a lower level than at the start of the year, which contradicts the usual logic of a bullish peak around 12 to 18 months after a halving;

• The chances of a new peak before the cycle trough are now estimated at just 20%, according to Michael Terpin, with probabilities decreasing each month;

• The macroeconomic context remains decisive: a reduction in the Fed's key rates in 2026 could offer a breath of fresh air to the crypto markets, but this monetary easing would not be enough to reverse the trend;

• The American political situation also weighs heavily: Terpin warns against a scenario where “If the Republican Party does not control both chambers in the 2026 midterms, this could handicap the pro-crypto regulatory environment”.

In other words, the bitcoin market seems caught between two fires: economic fundamentals that are slowly improving, and a political context that remains unstable. The cycle paradigm is collapsing, and with it, the benchmarks on which many investors based their expectations.

Towards a utilitarian bitcoin: the silent push of payment infrastructures

In parallel with this uncertain climate on the markets, another observation is emerging: the year 2026 should mark a turning point in the real use of bitcoin as a means of payment.

For Rich Rines, blockchain developer and industry pioneer, “2025 has made Bitcoin easier to hold and grow. 2026 should make it easier to use in practice”. In other words, after a phase focused on conservation and passive income, bitcoin is entering a new era of transactional use.

This change is driven in particular by the rise of Bitcoin neobanks, stablecoins backed by BTC, but also by companies like Square, which has integrated bitcoin into its payment terminals, allowing merchants to easily accept it while automatically converting 1% of their sales into BTC.

Another accelerator is the Lightning Network. This second-layer solution intended to improve the scalability of bitcoin continues to gain ground. Thanks to a system of payment channels that reduces the number of on-chain transactions, Lightning facilitates instant and very low-cost payments.

For Graham Krizek, founder of Voltage, “the Lightning Network could capture 5% of stablecoin flows by 2028”thus highlighting its potential in the broader crypto economy. By removing technical friction, the network makes bitcoin more competitive with traditional payment systems and centralized stablecoins.

Mow speaks of a historic bull run to come for bitcoin, but it is in the uses that the future is already being built. In 2026, far from the spotlight, the ecosystem is equipping itself, adapting and preparing the ground. If the price stagnates, the revolution advances.