Kalshi could soon reach a new milestone. According to Bloomberg, the American predictive markets platform is discussing a new fundraising that would bring its valuation to $65 billion. Yet just one month after raising $1 billion at $40 billion in valuation, the company still has to settle several regulatory battles. Its IPO is not expected before 2027.
In brief
- According to Bloomberg, Kalshi would negotiate a new raise based on a valuation of $65 billion, compared to $40 billion in October.
- Its co-founder and CEO, Tarek Mansour, did not confirm the amount or the operation. However, he mentions a possible IPO after 2026.
- In the United States, 22 states are contesting the derivative status claimed by Kalshi for its sports markets. Thirty-eight attorneys general support this opposition.
Kalshi gains 25 billion in value in one month
The progression is dizzying. In October, Kalshi closed a $1 billion Series G round, which valued the company at $40 billion. Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management led this transaction, with participation from Baillie Gifford, Morgan Stanley, Coatue and Andreessen Horowitz.
A month later, Bloomberg reports that the platform is discussing a new fundraising based on $65 billion. This represents an increase of 62.5% in a few weeks. At this rate, it would almost take a calendar to track Kalshi’s valuations.
Please note, however: this amount remains an estimate reported by anonymous sources. The company has not released any official announcement regarding this.
For his part, Tarek Mansour, co-founder and general manager of Kalshi, raised the possibility of an IPO. He nevertheless ruled out such an operation in 2026, without specifying a timetable for the future.
This perspective comes in a turbulent financial context, particularly since the departure of the founder of Nvidia. Despite the uncertainties surrounding the markets, some investors seem ready to bet even more on prediction platforms.
But behind this financial enthusiasm lies a much more serious problem: American regulations.
Predictive markets, Kalshi faces resistance from 22 states
To defend its model, Kalshi considers its event markets to be swaps, in other words derivative products that fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Authorities in several states do not share this interpretation. Twenty-two states dispute this characterization and believe that certain markets, particularly those linked to sporting events, rather fall under local gambling laws. Thirty-eight attorneys general support this opposition.
The CFTC defends Kalshi’s position. In a public statement, its president recalled that these products constitute derivatives on commodities and therefore fall within the jurisdiction of the agency. He also assured that it would protect its exclusive authority in this area.
However, this position does not end the standoff. Arkansas has filed charges against Kalshi for deceptive marketing practices.
The CFTC’s position on these markets shows that the federal regulator intends to defend its prerogatives. It remains to be seen whether the courts will follow this reading.
The issue goes far beyond Kalshi’s case. If states win this battle, the platform may need to obtain separate authorizations in each jurisdiction. Its national model would then risk transforming into a 50-step administrative process.
Conversely, a victory for Kalshi and the CFTC would pave the way for a more uniform federal framework. It is precisely this prospect that could attract investors.
The crypto sector is familiar with this type of blockage: between political promises and their translation into law, the road sometimes remains long. Moreover, the crypto industry is still struggling to get the texts it hopes for adopted in Congress.
Nearly $100 billion in volume, a sufficient argument?
On a commercial level, Kalshi nevertheless has a strong argument. The platform approached $100 billion in trading volumes in October. Its competitor Polymarket also displays significant activity, with nearly $15 billion in monthly volumes on its American branch. However, the two figures do not cover exactly the same area and therefore do not allow a direct comparison.
These volumes demonstrate the growing interest in predictive markets. However, they do not represent the company’s revenue. Kalshi charges commissions on transactions, and its revenue depends on the fees charged, the frequency of trades and the markets that attract the most activity.
However, the company does not publicly communicate all of these parameters. It is impossible, under these conditions, to precisely verify whether a valuation of $65 billion corresponds to its financial performance.
Two elements can nevertheless explain investors’ appetite. First, the rapid growth of activity. Then, the hope of clearer regulations which would allow Kalshi to continue its expansion without increasing conflicts with local authorities.
There remains a major unknown: the judicial calendar. An IPO after 2026 will require solid accounts, but also a sufficiently stable regulatory environment to reassure future shareholders.
For now, Kalshi has the volumes, attracts investors and has big ambitions. But between a valuation of $65 billion and a successful entry onto Wall Street, there are still some obstacles. And unlike the results of a sporting match, that of its legal battles cannot yet be easily predicted.
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