JPMorgan sees bitcoin at $170,000 if Strategy holds up

The crypto market has never been a smooth river. Sometimes shaken by political decisions, sometimes boosted by corporate announcements, it rarely obeys only the laws of supply and demand. What if, from now on, the fate of bitcoin no longer depended solely on miners or regulators? According to JPMorgan, a very specific actor could tip the price of BTC. Its name: Strategy. A balancing act that could lead to an all-time high.

MicroStrategy: fortress or flaw of bitcoin?

At JPMorgan, we no longer talk about volatility alone to explain the movements of bitcoin, this asset considered undervalued compared to gold. The central element now is the solidity of Strategy. And the message is clear: as long as the mNAV (enterprise value / bitcoin value) ratio remains above 1, everything is fine. Today it is at 1.13. A margin that is reassuring.

To avoid any panic, the company led by Phong Le has built up a safety cushion: $1.44 billion in cash, enough to last two years without selling a single satoshi. An assumed strategy, because as Michael Saylor, its founder, declared:

Classification by indices does not define us. Our strategy is long-term, our conviction in bitcoin is unshakeable.

At the same time, JPMorgan continues to defend its valuation model based on a comparison with gold. Result ? A theoretical goal of $170,000 for BTC at 6-12 months. A slap in the face for the skeptics… if Strategy holds up.

MSCI: the silent arbiter of the next crypto bull run

January 15 could become a key date for the crypto-sphere. That day, the giant MSCI will decide: should companies like Strategy be excluded from its stock indices? This decision, seemingly technical, could cause a lot of ink to be spilled – and dollars.

According to JPMorgan, an MSCI crowding out could lead to up to $2.8 billion in capital outflows. And up to 8.8 billion if other indices follow suit. However, all this seems already anticipated. Since the announcement of this possible exclusion, Strategy stock has fallen by 40%, showing an even worse performance than that of bitcoin.

But what if MSCI decided to keep Strategy in its indices? The scenario would be reversed. The company could quickly regain its pre-October levels, and BTC could regain height.

Bitwise's Matt Hougan remains confident. According to him, even if Strategy were to be excluded from the indices, this would not force it to sell its bitcoins. He emphasizes that the company has sufficient reserves to cover its financial obligations in the medium term.

$90,000: a wall or a simple speed bump for bitcoin?

In the crypto landscape, one number crystallizes the tensions: $90,000. This is not historical resistance, but… the new average production cost of a bitcoin, according to JPMorgan. A sort of psychological threshold. Falling permanently below this bar could sound the alarm for certain miners, particularly those most exposed to energy costs.

At $0.05 per kWh, the most vulnerable are already struggling to remain profitable. Each extra cent equals +$18,000 on unit cost. Some miners are therefore liquidating their BTC to survive, but this is not what will weigh the most on the price, according to JPMorgan.

And meanwhile, other cryptos are suffering in silence. Ether is struggling to hold on to $5,000, solana is regaining color, and DeFi projects are oscillating between survival and resurrection. The fate of the entire market seems to hang on the breath of a single actor.

To remember: key figures and highlights

• $92,091: bitcoin price at press time;
• Strategy holds 650,000 BTC, valued at nearly $60 billion;
• Its mNAV is at 1.13, threshold above the critical level of 1;
• The cost of producing bitcoin is estimated at $90,000;
• MSCI's decision is expected on January 15.

Nothing is decided. BTC can climb high, but also fall again. Some analysts believe that the rejection of $93,500 seriously weakens the hypothesis of a bull run. The crypto market, still feverish, must deal with hopes… but also with realities. Euphoria alone is no longer enough to stay the course.