Is the Bitcoin rally back? Technical analysis of December 3, 2024

Bitcoin begins a rebound after suffering a slight decline. Now let's look at the development prospects for BTC.

Bitcoin (BTC) price situation

After establishing a new ATH at 99,661Bitcoin suffered selling pressure leading to a drop in its price of more than 8 %. BTC has thus joined the 90,800a level that has become support having triggered sustained buying interest so far. It is interesting to observe that the latter corresponds to an area of ​​notable value. This buying interest subsequently made it possible to form a bullish encompassing (on a daily scale), a pattern conducive to a bullish reversal. Currently, the cryptocurrency is in a consolidation phase in the form of a range, between 98,700 And 94,800.

At the time of writing, the price of bitcoin is trading around $95,200. Although the short-term trend of BTC is not clearly bullish, the medium and long-term structure remains clearly positive. This observation is reinforced by the positioning of the moving averages on 50 And 200 days, which remain oriented and crossed upwards. Unsurprisingly, however, the cryptocurrency's upward momentum is showing signs of running out of steam. Although this may seem worrying, it is important to remember that bitcoin has recently benefited from strong bullish volatility. This is often a harbinger of a break, or even a correction to come, while remaining a healthy development.

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. In this community, you will find lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets, in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on derivatives (BTC/USDT)

The open interest of BTC/USDT perpetual contracts has evolved in line with the price of its underlying. However, there has recently been a stagnation in Open Interest, signaling a lack of new capital inflows and the notable closing of speculative positions. On the CVD side, it continues to fall, suggesting selling interest on the latest orders placed at the market. Taking into account the funding rate, a bullish conviction emerges, although it remains moderate. Finally, on the liquidation side, they remain low, testifying to a balanced market where buyers and sellers accept the current direction of the crypto.

The heat map of BTC/USDT perpetual contract liquidations shows that Bitcoin rebounded from contact with the liquidation zone around the 91,000 $. Buying interest thus seems to have supported the price, allowing Bitcoin to continue its rise. While this may be reassuring, it should be noted that this ancient area has not been clearly obliterated, extending up to 85,000 $. Below, a subtle zone around the 80,000 $ is also identifiable, followed by a more marked area between 74,000 $ and 75,000 $. Above the current price, the area around the 100,000 $ is a major point of interest. If the price approaches these levels, it could trigger a large number of orders, increasing the risk of volatility for the cryptocurrency. These areas therefore constitute crucial points of interest for investors.

Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts

• If the price of bitcoin manages to stay above $90,800a break in the resistance of $98,400 could happen. In this case, the continuation of the bullish movement could make it possible to reach the ATH of BTC, identified around $99,600. Crossing this last level would open the way to $100,000or even up to the first resistance of the pivot points, located at $108,477. This would represent an increase of approximately 13%.

It is important to note that hitting an all-time high makes it more difficult to identify resistance levels.

• If bitcoin fails to stay above $90,800he could find a point of support around $87,000. A prolonged decline could then lead towards support for $85,000. Finally, in the event of a more marked correction, the area located around $81,500 would constitute a key support, the achievement of which could lead to a drop of approximately 15%.

Conclusion

After a sharp rise, Bitcoin experienced a phase of consolidation, accompanied by signs of slowing down in its momentum. Despite an uncertain short-term trend, the overall structure remains positive, marking a healthy break after a period of significant volatility. Now, it will therefore be crucial to carefully monitor the price reaction at key levels to validate or adjust current forecasts. Finally, remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria, and that the price of cryptocurrencies can evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.