He resisted. A long time. Too long, some will say. Jerome Powell, president of the Fed, waited for the economy to browse before raising the rates. No question of giving in to Trump's pressure, which demanded a softening long before the storm. But imagine for a moment that Powell has folded. Would we have seen Bitcoin soaks in 2020? What if, this time, monetary policy became a real springboard for crypto? Mike Novogratz thinks yes.
In short
- A dovish president at the Fed could weaken the dollar and strongly boost bitcoin.
- Mike Novogratz sees BTC at $ 200,000 if the markets perceive a too soft Fed.
- He combines faith in crypto and protection via puts on the nasdaq on the cover.
- Bitcoin could become the spine of a tokenized system mixing actions, stablecoins and credits.
A dovish president at the Fed: the last catalyst for Bitcoin
Changing the Fed governor for a “dove” profile would be one of the most feared and hoped for the crypto ecosystem. Mike Novogratz calls this “” potential greater bull catalyst For Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto. In this vision, the Fed would cut rates even when the economy would show signs of vigor, weakening the dollar and making alternative assets as BTC even more attractive.
It is not pure fantasy: Novogratz even evokes the possibility that the price of Bitcoin reaches $ 200,000.
But this trajectory has a price: Novogratz notes that a weakening of the dollar generated by a too accommodating Fed could weaken the American economic position. The status quo, where the Fed refuses to flank under political pressure, has preserved institutional credibility. But the alternative could trigger an explosion of demand to BTC.
This bet of the narrative against the economy highlights how much the scholarship of ideas and emotions counts in crypto cycles.
Macro, coverage and cycles: Novogratz plays the tightrope walker
One of the paradoxes that Novogratz embodies is to strongly believe in the crypto cycle while adopting a prudent posture. He declares: ” I am optimistic and I'm afraid ». Halfway between technological faith and strategic precaution, he does not hesitate to buy puts on the Nasdaq to cover himself against a quantitative reversal.
This ambivalence overturns the idea of a simple bullish delirium: BTC is no longer an excessive bet, but a component of a structured portfolio, where risk management counts as much as conviction. It anticipates a more mature cycle, less subject to irrational outbreaks, where crypto becomes an active, and not an game of pure casino.
In this perspective, the old 4 -year cycle model in crypto loses its strength. For Mike Novogratz, institutional catalysts, tokenization, regulations, all this changes the architecture of the market. These are not only spectacular parabolas but foundations to be built.
The challenge is to follow this turning point without losing sight of macro trends. BTC then becomes as much an ideological bet as a macro bet.
Beyond the hype: Build Bitcoin as a vertebral column of the system
The third dimension of the story is that of construction, not euphoria. Novogratz imagines a future where everything is tokenized: actions, credits, private funds, and where the simple “wallet” combines bank deposit, stablecoins, titles and crypto. He wants to tip the finance of accounts to Wallets.
In this world, Bitcoin ceases to be only a speculative asset to become an essential brick of this arrangement. It is no longer a question of “betting on BTC” but of integrating it as a reserve of structural value. We are entering the building phase: fewer warrior promises, more resilient infrastructure.
Here are some figures / striking facts to understand this turn:
- $ 9 billion: Bitcoin amount sold by Novogratz for a customer, demonstrating how large flows can influence the market;
- Several billion in capitalization expected if the BTC price reaches $ 200,000;
- Solana and Hyperliquid are positioned as pillars of future infrastructure (it often quotes Solana);
- The narrative currently dominates 90 % of valuation in the crypto according to him;
- It projects a multiplication of token asset classes (actions, credit, “per exchanges”, etc.).
It is in this scenario that Bitcoin could become less a “same” than a spine of the modular decentralized financial system.
Changing the Fed boss is not an easy chess: Jerome Powell will not be ousted to please, even in Trump. The president already has difficulty: his candidate for the CFTC has been stopped on simple SMS of the Winklevoss brothers, which proves that even in easy appointments, obstacles can arise.
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