Bitcoin plunged $ 76,700, which was its lowest level in four months, in a context of global economic turbulence. Indeed, the fall of 30 % from its historic summit of $ 109,350 rekindled the debates on a possible reversal of trend, because some observers question the sustainability of the bullish cycle. However, several indicators suggest that this correction could represent a strategic entry point for investors. On the one hand, the financial markets remain under pressure with sustainable economic uncertainties, on the other, the BTC derivative market shows unexpected solidity. So, did Bitcoin hit his ultimate floor before a rebound?
Technical signals plead for market stabilization
The jolts on the cryptos market are not an unprecedented phenomenon, but this 30 % correction intrigues analysts. In comparison with the brutal fall of November 2021, where the BTC had lost 41 % in 60 days, the current dynamics seem less marked. However, some believe that to really enter into a lower phase, Bitcoin should display a loss of 40 % or more.
Historically, A 30 % correction is not enough to qualify a lower market. The parallel with 2021 is misleading, because at the time, the US dollar appreciated strongly against a basket of currencies. However, in 2025, the trend is opposite: the dollar index (Dxy) fell from 109.2 to 104, which strengthened the thesis that investors remain positioned on risk assets.
From a technical point of view, the BTC derivative market displays a curious stability. The annualized bonus on future Bitcoin remains at 4.5 %, even after a dive of 19 % of the price between March 2 and 11. By way of comparison, during the debacle of June 2022, this premium had fallen under 0 %, which had illustrated a generalized panic. The fact that the funding of perpetual contracts remain neutral, and suggest a balance between buyers and sellers, could be a sign of a reversal of the market.
The impact of macroeconomic uncertainties and the potential capital of capital
Beyond the technical indicators, the macroeconomic context could play in favor of a bitcoin rebound. A key element concerns the fears of a Shutdown from the American government. Discussions at the Congress around the Budget must lead by March 15, and any lack of agreement could affect traditional financial markets. Such a situation could paradoxically strengthen Bitcoin, often perceived as an alternative to sovereign currencies in times of political instability.
In parallel, another factor draws attention: the American real estate market shows critical signs. According to data from the National Association of Realtors, the signatures of real estate contracts reached a historic low in January. Worse, 7 % of real estate loans guaranteed by the FHA display more than 90 days late, a level higher than that of the 2008 subprime crisis. Faced with these alert signals, certain investors could choose to redirect their capital to rare assets and resistant to inflation, including Bitcoin.
If these trends are confirmed, the BTC could find $ 90,000 faster than expected. The next few days will be crucial to assess whether this correction marks a real floor or if other tremors are to be expected. What is certain is that Bitcoin continues to evolve in an environment where economic uncertainties play a central role in its valuation.
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