Goldman Sachs anticipates a drop in rates in September

The American federal reserve could initiate a major inflection in September with a first drop in its guiding rates. A scenario now envisaged by several major banks, including Goldman Sachs, and which redesign the prospects of the financial markets. For crypto investors, faced for months with a restrictive monetary context, this expected pivot could rekindle the risk of risk and serve as a catalyst for a new bullish cycle.

Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo bet on a drop in rates in September

While the Fed is resistant to Trump and maintains its rates, certain major American financial institutions, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, anticipate a first drop in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in September.

They project A cycle of three successive drops, for a total of 75 base points by the end of the year. This perspective is based on the need to support a slowdown in economic activity, while stimulating private investment.

For these actors, the time would have come to influence monetary policy in order to prevent an overly marked weakening of growth. This scenario revives the interest of investors for risky assets, in particular cryptos, traditionally sensitive to liquidity conditions.

These monetary relaxation anticipations are based on several well -established economic mechanisms:

• Lower rates facilitate access to credit, which encourages investment in speculative assets such as Bitcoin;

• The drop in rates tends to weaken the dollar, thus increasing the attractiveness of assets denominated in other currencies or decorrelated from the traditional monetary system;

• Monetary easing increases the risk taking of investors, who then seek higher yields in unconventional asset classes, such as cryptos;

• Historically, the lower rate cycles have often coincided with bullish phases on the crypto market, especially during periods of high liquidity.

This dynamic, if it materializes, could mark a turning point after a long sequence of monetary tightening that has weighed throughout the market. However, this optimistic reading is far from unanimous.

Increased prudence at Jpmorgan and Morgan Stanley

Unlike Goldman Sachs, Jpmorgan and Morgan Stanley display a significantly more prudent posture with regard to the evolution of the rates.

Indeed, JPMorgan plans a single drop of 25 base points, but only in December, three months after the first screenings of its competitors. Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, does not expect any reduction in rates this year, due to persistent uncertainty about the state of the economy and the inflationist risks.

This lack of consensus reveals the complexity of the current macroeconomic analysis, as well as the difficulty of predicting precisely the calendar of Fed decisions.

Such divergent projections take place in a tense context, marked by the maintenance of interest rates at the end of the Fed meeting in July. The president of the institution, Jerome Powell, expressed concerns about the slowdown in growth, while not excluding the possibility of an additional tightening if the economic conditions required it.

This mixed signal has helped curb the momentum of the Crypto market, already cooled by an uncertain global context. Added to this is the potential impact of Donald Trump's trade policies, including a new wave of customs duties, which could weigh on the American economy and lead the Fed to review its priorities.

In this climate of uncertainty, the crypto market flicker. Bitcoin, for example, is currently in a consolidation phase around 114,000 dollars, a level that reflects the wait -and -see attitude. The prospect of a drop in rates is a potential bullish factor. If the Fed decided to maintain or even raise its rates, this could cause a new phase of correction on the market, already weakened by months of monetary tightening. Conversely, softening could open the way to a general rebound.