Gold is crushing US Treasuries!

A discreet but historic shift has taken place in central bank reserves. For the first time in almost 30 years, gold is outperforming US Treasuries. This readjustment, far from being trivial, reflects a growing loss of confidence in the sovereign debt of the United States. Behind this choice, central banks are reconfiguring their priorities, banking on the timeless solidity of the yellow metal. This signal, which went almost unnoticed, could redefine the foundations of the global monetary system.

A historic turning point in central bank strategy

While tokenized gold crosses the billion-dollar milestone in daily volume, one piece of data surprised even the most seasoned analysts this October. Foreign central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries, a situation not seen since the mid-1990s.

The chart published by Barchart on October 26 confirms this symbolic, but highly significant, inversion. This is a discreet but fundamental break in the logic of reserve.

This shift is based on a particularly sustained gold purchasing dynamic for several years, which intensified during this year. Here is the main figures provided by the World Gold Council:

• 19 net tonnes purchased in August 2025, after 10 tonnes in July;

• An annual rate which projects around 900 tonnes of purchases in 2025, double the historical average;

• The fourth consecutive year where purchases far exceed usual standards;

• A trend that began in 2010: central banks have been net buyers of gold for 16 consecutive years;

• In just six months, 23 countries increased their gold reserves.

In other words, this is not an isolated peak or a short-term tactical repositioning. It is a deliberate, coordinated, sustainable strategy, which reflects a redefinition of the role of gold as a basis of confidence in an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic context.

A structural shift in monetary confidence

Behind these accounting decisions lie deeper geopolitical and strategic choices. Macro-analyst Sunil Reddy speaks of a paradigm shift: “when these balances almost disappeared, gold soared…Capital seeks what cannot be lacking: strong currency. Gold is no longer just a hedge against inflation; it becomes a precious guarantee, the asset of last confidence”.

For him, the recent rise in gold is not simply the result of an inflationary environment, but of a sudden drying up of secure liquidity, formerly embodied by Treasury bonds.

At the same time, this shift towards hard assets is not going unnoticed in the crypto ecosystem. Crypto investor and analyst Lark Davis pointed out an intriguing correlation. While gold fell 5%, its worst day since 2013, bitcoin rose 3%.

According to him, “If BTC captures even a fraction of gold’s capitalization, it could mark the start of a crazy rally… 1% equals $134,000, 3% equals $188,000”.

Mister Crypto agrees: “digital gold comes next”. Although the sharp sell-off in gold appears to have been caused by technical mechanisms, with an ETF sell-off triggering automatic orders, Chinese institutional investors continued to add to their exposures. No signs of structural withdrawal are evident on the physical gold side.

This shift from institutional capital towards assets considered “non-defaulting” could well redefine the axes of trust on which the global monetary system rests. Gold is regaining its status as a tangible anchor in a liquid and over-indebted world. However, if central banks reaffirm their preference for gold, individuals could soon turn to its digital equivalent. Bitcoin, still on the fringes of these macroeconomic arbitrages, is perhaps waiting for its moment. Far from being a simple speculative asset, it could become, for a growing portion of investors, the ultimate asset of decentralized trust which will join gold in the balance sheets of central banks.