Gold sends a more mixed signal than it seems. Behind the classic image of the safe haven, the market today shows a clear divide between individuals who continue to buy via ETFs and institutional investors who have started to reduce their weight.
In brief
- Individuals still drive demand for gold via ETFs, according to the BIS.
- Institutional investors have been reducing their exposure for several months.
- The strong dollar and leverage explain a large part of the recent correction.
A market driven by the crowd, not by big hands
While bitcoin continues to be dissected, sometimes compared to gold, sometimes reduced to the status of a simple technological asset, the precious metals market is already revealing a much more revealing scene. The latest quarterly study from the BIS shows that the rush into gold and silver funds was driven primarily by retail investors.
Institutionalists have not followed the movement with the same enthusiasm. They preferred to remain in reserve, or even lighten their positions. The BIS graph alone summarizes this divide: on the one hand, retail flows into gold soar until the first quarter of 2026; on the other, the institutional curve is gradually shifting into the red.
This changes the reading of the market. When Wall Street buys with conviction, the rise often appears cleaner, more regular, more sustainable. When it is mainly individuals who push, the dynamic becomes more nervous. It can continue, but it also becomes more fragile.
The BIS therefore does not simply describe a new gold rush. It describes a market where enthusiasm has been concentrated in easily accessible vehicles, especially ETFs, with more speculative behavior than it appears at first glance.
Why the rise ended up stagnating
The bank explains that the surge in gold and especially silver continued after the strong momentum of 2025, before turning around suddenly at the end of January and in February 2026. Silver even fell by around 30% in a single session at the end of January, which the BIS presents as its biggest daily decline since the 1980s.
This reversal cannot be explained only by fundamentals. The BIS emphasizes the amplifying effect of leveraged ETFs, margin calls and trend following strategies. Clearly, the market has not just corrected. He stalled faster because part of his internal mechanics was pushing him to sell at the wrong time.
This is an essential point. Many investors buy gold for its reputation for stability. However, when exposure comes through listed products, sometimes leveraged, stability can become misleading. Metal is metal, but the investment channel changes everything.
The dollar has regained control
Another key point: gold's recent decline has occurred as the dollar has strengthened and expectations of a rate cut in the United States have cooled. The BIS itself notes that the drop in precious metals coincides with a change in perception of the dollar and the American monetary trajectory.
This link remains visible this week. Reuters reports that gold fell on March 19 to its lowest level in more than a month, penalized by a strong dollar and by a Fed considered firm, despite a tense geopolitical context which should normally have supported the yellow metal.
In other words, the old reflex “crisis equals automatic rise in gold” is no longer enough. In 2026, the market is also looking at the American currency, real rates and the very structure of flows. When the dollar dominates, gold can lose momentum even under geopolitical tension. Gold remains an observed, desired, sometimes overbought value. But when the crowd is buying when the big hands are selling, you don't just have to look at the metal. We have to look at who is really holding the market.
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