While stock indices are setting new records and gold is returning to its highest levels in six weeks, bitcoin remains stuck around $64,000. This contrast is surprising, because capital is flowing into traditional assets, while the crypto market is struggling to regain real momentum. At the origin of this discrepancy, there is a historic rush of Asian demand for the precious metal and an intact appetite for American equities. This divergence raises the question: are liquidity temporarily abandoning cryptos?
In brief
- This Wednesday, August 5, 2026, gold jumped 2.8% to a six-week high of $4,213 per ounce, driven by a massive influx of capital into Chinese ETFs and continued purchases by the People’s Bank of China.
- At the same time, the enthusiasm of investors on Wall Street propelled the S&P 500 index to an absolute record at 7,793 points, reflecting a very broad upward dynamic on the stock markets.
- In sharp contrast to this exuberance on traditional assets, Bitcoin remains trapped in suffocating inertia around $64,000, under the threat of a bearish breakout towards the $58,000 zone.
- According to on-chain analyses, the flagship crypto will only be able to begin a real rebound if it records the return of sustained flows to its American spot ETFs and a lasting easing of bond yields.
The spectacular rise of the yellow metal and the frenzy on Asian ETFs
The global precious metals market is going through a remarkable acceleration phase, driven by a massive shift in capital flows towards Asian financial instruments. While Western investors are carefully observing monetary policy adjustments, the physical and paper market in Asia is recording activity on an unprecedented scale. This fund dynamic reaffirms the central role of oriental markets in setting international gold prices.
This rebirth of interest in the traditional safe haven is illustrated by a spectacular recovery in market indicators after a period of high summer volatility. The recent price trajectory and the massive influx of liquidity into the region’s investment vehicles testify a radical change in posture on the part of large institutional operators and private investors:
- A progression of the course: gold rose 2.8% during the day to rise to $4,213 per ounce, marking its highest level since June 22;
- Continuity of inflows: Bloomberg reports 14 consecutive days of net inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by physical gold in China;
- The recovery after a historic low: this dynamic comes just after a month of June qualified as the worst month of historical capital outflows for these products according to the World Gold Council;
- Cumulative volume over the half-year: inflows since the start of the year on Chinese ETFs reached 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion), marking the second best half-year performance in the history of the domestic market.
The behavior of institutions and monetary authorities constitutes the cornerstone of this upward movement in tangible assets. The World Gold Council explain this trend due to very specific structural factors: “Demand for gold ETFs remained strong amid growing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, while continued gold purchases by the PBoC (People’s Bank of China) continued to maintain a favorable sentiment. The participation of institutional investors in Chinese gold ETFs has also increased, supporting demand for these products.. The figures confirm this institutional commitment, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) having accumulated no less than 82 tonnes of gold over a period of 20 consecutive months ending in June.
The S&P 500 crosses an absolute peak: the surge in American indices
While precious metals were shining in Asia, U.S. stock indexes were showing remarkable strength in New York. The S&P 500 index reached a historic high of 7,793 points before experiencing a slight decline early in the afternoon. Thus, analysis of the internal structure of this increase testifies to particularly broad financial health within the equity sector.
Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, noted that 66% of stocks making up the S&P 500 are now trading above their 50-day moving average, while 57% of them are outperforming the standard benchmark.
This performance of American stocks comes against a backdrop of calm on certain major geopolitical risks, notably the changing outlook around the timetable for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Such a configuration made it possible to inject a strong dose of optimism into equity investors, stimulating purchases of a large majority of stocks on the American stock market. This appetite for risk in traditional markets contrasts with the passive behavior observed in the crypto market.
Bitcoin stagnation under threat of prolonged capitulation
In contrast to the widespread optimism in stocks and commodities, bitcoin is failing to generate convincing bullish momentum. Analyst and trader Rekt Capital summarizes the delicate technical situation of the weekly chart of the BTC/USD pair in these terms: “As long as orange support produces weaker and weaker bounces, price will continue to form lower highs, which will eventually cause a deeper breakout into the core of the $58,000-$66,000 zone”. This graphic vulnerability reflects the progressive exhaustion of buyers with each rebound attempt.
According to published research by the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, three preconditions must be met to hope for the emergence of a lasting recovery in the price of bitcoin. First, the market requires a sustained return of capital inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. Second, an easing of US bond yields must materialize, in conjunction with the absence of further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Finally, CryptoQuant reiterates the importance of a return to the green of Coinbase Premium, measuring the price gap between the BTC/USD pair on Coinbase and BTC/USDT on Binance.
The current divergence between gold, stock indices and bitcoin reveals a critical transition phase in global liquidity allocation. If the resilience of the American economy and the support of Asian central banks directly benefit traditional safe havens and stocks, the crypto sector is still suffering from the after-effects of a phase of prolonged capitulation in price metrics.
In the short term, the lack of an immediate monetary catalyst from the Fed leaves bitcoin at the mercy of stifling sideways volatility. Investors will need to carefully monitor the realignment of US institutional flows and the stabilization of Coinbase Premium to determine whether bitcoin will be able to catch up.
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