Gold and silver rise in 2025, Bitcoin falters after record high

The year 2025 has highlighted a clear divide between cryptocurrencies and precious metals. While gold and silver recorded remarkable performances, bitcoin, after several months of sustained progress, marked a clear reversal of trend. In October, the leading cryptocurrency was still up almost 40% since the start of the year (YTD). It is now down around 6% YTD, reflecting a more difficult end to the financial year than expected.

Precious metals will eclipse crypto in 2025

Bitcoin's decline comes after its all-time high in October at $126,000, since which it has fallen about 28%. Conversely, gold and silver posted historic performances. Gold is up 72% year-to-date, adding nearly $13.2 trillion to its capitalization, while silver has soared 155% YTD to $4.2 trillion, becoming the third most valuable asset in the world.

The yellow metal is also on track for eight consecutive months of increases, a level of regularity not seen since 1980, according to The Kobeissi Letter. Together, gold and silver added nearly $16 trillion in market capitalization in 2025 alone.

At the same time, the performance of the crypto market as a whole has been mixed. Ethereum is down over 11% YTD, XRP is down 9%, Solana is down 34%, Dogecoin is down 60% and Cardano is down 55%. Binance Coin (BNB) is an exception, with an increase of 20% since the start of the year.

Why bitcoin and crypto are in trouble

Several factors explain bitcoin's slowdown, according to analysts. Piyush Walke of Delta Exchange believes that the divergence seen between cryptocurrencies and precious metals shows that the recent decline is not limited to a simple move towards safe havens. Investors rather seem to be reviewing their exposure in the face of rising geopolitical tensions, fears of a slowdown in the American economy and persistent trade uncertainties.

For its part, The Kobeissi Letter describes the current situation as a structured bear market, fueled by excessive use of leverage. To support this analysis, Sean Farrell, head of digital assets at Fundstrat, points out that the narrow consolidation phase observed on bitcoin in recent weeks corresponds to the year-end historical patterns. Investors then tend to reduce underperforming assets to reallocate their capital towards those with better returns.

This rotational dynamic also supports a more constructive reading of bitcoin's current weakness. Commentator Ash Crypto believes that this underperformance reflects more of a temporary decoupling than a structural problem. According to him, capital initially flowed towards traditional hedges such as gold and silver, in a context of macroeconomic uncertainty, inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks. Historically, precious metals absorb defensive flows first, with bitcoin occurring later in the cycle, suggesting that the current slowdown is part of a previously observed market pattern.

Seasonal trends and market resets fuel hopes for bitcoin rebound

Despite recent turbulence, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic about bitcoin's short-term prospects, citing the beginnings of a recovery scenario.

• This optimism is primarily based on seasonal patterns. Sean Farrell observes that while bitcoin closed December in negative territory, January has historically offered a rebound, suggesting that the current weakness may be short-lived.
• This seasonal reading is reinforced by broader market analysis. Crypto research firm 10X Research believes that bitcoin is approaching a point where a near-term rebound becomes increasingly plausible.
• According to the latter, a correction of around 30% spread over almost two and a half months made it possible to reset technical indicators and reduce market pressure, leaving conditions better aligned for a more sustainable recovery.

Longer term, the outlook remains positive. Analyst Colin Lewis points out that, despite the current appeal of gold and silver, the potential of bitcoin remains unparalleled. He believes that its price could register significant growth in the months or years to come, eventually outperforming precious metals over time.

At the same time, several large financial institutions have revised their forecasts downwards. Standard Chartered thus reduced its year-end price target for bitcoin to $100,000, from $200,000 previously, and adjusted its projection for 2026 to $150,000, from $300,000 initially. Bitcoin is currently trading around $90,125, raising doubts about its ability to reach this revised target in the final days of 2025.

Furthermore, major financial institutions have revised their Bitcoin forecasts downward. Standard Chartered cut its year-end price target to $100,000 from $200,000 and adjusted its 2026 outlook to $150,000 from $300,000. Bitcoin is currently trading around $90,125, leaving doubt over its ability to reach this revised target in the final days of 2025.