American crypto is entering a fragile zone. After the GENIUS Act, the progress of the CLARITY Act and the controlled rise of prediction markets, the midterms of 2026 could decide whether this sequence becomes a real regulatory shift or a simple political parenthesis.
In brief
- American crypto has gained ground, but the midterms can reshuffle the cards.
- The GENIUS Act is acquired, while the CLARITY Act remains politically vulnerable.
- Prediction markets add urgency to a clear framework, but complicate the picture of the sector.
Crypto has won Washington, but not yet for duration
Crypto has obtained its first real legislative gains in the United States, but these gains remain exposed to the electoral calendar. As the political deadline hanging over the CLARITY Act also shows, the sector is moving forward quickly, but within a narrow window. This is the heart of the warning issued by Jesse Spiro, head of government affairs at Tether, during Consensus Miami 2026.
He said the midterms will be a key test of whether recent political support will survive the next power struggle in Congress. Crypto is therefore no longer just a market subject. It becomes an electoral issue.
The GENIUS Act marked a break. Signed in July 2025, it gave a federal framework to dollar-backed stablecoins. For the crypto industry, this text served as an institutional passport.
The CLARITY Act becomes the real battleground
The CLARITY Act is now the most sensitive piece. The White House is aiming for adoption by Congress around July 4, 2026, with a passage in the Senate banking committee expected in May, then a very short window in June. This text should clarify the structure of the American crypto market. Clearly, it must better define which assets fall under the SEC, which fall under the CFTC, and how platforms must register.
The most concrete blockage concerns returns on stablecoins. A compromise would have emerged: prohibiting returns comparable to bank interest, but preserving certain reward programs linked to usage. Banks still find this too permissive. Crypto players see this as a vital minimum. Prediction markets add a trickier layer. They fascinate investors because they transform real events into quoted probabilities. But they also blur the lines between information, speculation and betting.
The SEC recently delayed the launch of more than two dozen ETFs tied to real-world events, including elections, recessions or tech layoffs. This brake shows that Washington does not want to open all the doors at the same time. This caution may become a political problem for crypto. Stablecoins seem easy to defend as a payment tool. Tokenization is sold as market modernization. Prediction markets awaken a more explosive imagination.
Midterms can slow everything down
The real threat is therefore not only regulatory. It is electoral. If Congress tilts or fragments further, crypto texts may get stuck in committees. Priorities change quickly after midterms.
The industry knows this. She invests massively in the political battle. But this strategy has a downside. The more visible crypto becomes in elections, the more attackable it becomes.
Basically, crypto assets will survive the midterms only if they stop appearing like a gift to the industry. They will have to be sold as a useful architecture: better monitored stablecoins, more readable markets, innovation repatriated to the United States. Without this story, the current wave can quickly fall again. With it, 2026 could become the year when American crypto regulation finally finds its point of balance.
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