Inflation in France reached 3% over one year in September 2026, compared to 2.4% in August, according to the provisional estimate from INSEE. This acceleration, the strongest since February 2024, comes mainly from energy and fresh products, even if prices fell by 0.3% compared to the previous month.
In brief
- Inflation in France reaches 3% over one year in September 2026, compared to 2.4% in August.
- Energy is the main driver of this acceleration, with an annual increase of 21.2%.
- Fresh products are also growing strongly, with inflation of 9.9% over one year.
- Despite this annual increase, prices fell by 0.3% between August and September.
- Harmonized inflation reached 3.4%, a level which reinforces concerns around the ECB’s policy.
Inflation in France rises under the effect of energy
The consumer price index increased by 3% between September 2025 and September 2026. This increase exceeds the 2.8% increase expected on average by economists.
Provisional data from INSEE show very different developments depending on the categories of expenditure:
- Energy prices increase by 21.2% year-on-year;
- Fresh products recorded an increase of 9.9%;
- All food products increased by 1.5%;
- Services cost 2.2% more than a year ago;
- Tobacco shows an annual increase of 3.3%;
- Manufactured products remain down 0.3%.
Energy thus represents the main driver of acceleration. Its annual increase already reached 16.7% in August. It strengthened further in September under the effect of petroleum products and gas.
This surge does not mean that all household spending increased by 21.2%. Energy represents around 7.6% of the basket used by INSEE, compared to almost 52% for services. Its surge nevertheless weighs heavily on the general index.
However, prices fell by 0.3% over one month
The annual increase of 3% may seem contradictory with the monthly decline of 0.3%. However, the two figures do not measure the same period. The first compared September 2026 to September 2025, while the second measures the evolution between August and September 2026.
The monthly drop is mainly explained by the end of the summer season. Prices for accommodation and transport usually decrease after the holidays. This seasonal decline in services more than offset the further growth in energy and food.
In August, prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month. The September decline therefore does not bring the general price level back to that of the beginning of summer. It only signals a decrease compared to the previous month.
Manufactured products followed the opposite movement. Their prices increased in September, as is often the case during the start of the school year and the end of sales. Over a year, however, they remain slightly cheaper.
Inflation in France particularly affects fresh products
Fresh products constitute the second point of tension. Their annual inflation rose from 5.9% in August to 9.9% in September. This increase explains most of the acceleration in food consumption, the overall rate of which increased from 1.1% to 1.5%.
Conversely, other food products only increased by 0.4% year-on-year, the same rate as in August. The difference shows that the increase does not concern food spending uniformly. Fruits, vegetables and other fresh foods are more subject to seasonal, climatic and logistical variations.
Services also accelerated, from 1.9% to 2.2%. Thanks to on-chain data, INSEE explains this development by a less pronounced seasonal drop in transport and accommodation prices than in September 2025.
For households, the average figure of 3% therefore does not necessarily reflect the inflation actually felt. This depends on the weight of energy, travel and fresh produce in each budget.
The harmonized rate reaches 3.4% and alerts the ECB
The harmonized index used for European comparisons reached 3.4% over one year, compared to 2.6% in August. It thus exceeds the 3.1% expected by economists. The difference with the national index comes in particular from the treatment of health expenditure: the European index uses prices after reimbursement, while the French index uses gross prices.
The acceleration does not only concern France. In September, harmonized inflation reached 3.3% in Germany, 4.1% in Italy and 5% in Spain. In the euro zone, it stood at 3.8%, well above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
This rise reinforces the pressure on the ECB, which has already raised its rates twice during the summer. However, it could remain cautious, because underlying inflation in the euro zone, calculated excluding energy and food, remains close to 2.5%. French data remains provisional. INSEE will publish the final results for September on October 15. These figures may be slightly revised and should not be used, at this stage, for contractual revaluations.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our ‘Read to Earn’ program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
