Fidelity now sees bitcoin evolving as in the early phases of a bull market. Such a reading contrasts with the caution displayed in recent months by several Wall Street players. This position comes as BTC attempts to overcome significant technical resistance, driven by the return of institutional flows to Bitcoin ETFs.
In brief
- Fidelity believes that bitcoin is now moving like it did during the early phases of major bull markets.
- Jurrien Timmer highlights the resistance of BTC despite an overbought situation and an important technical zone.
- Several signals are attracting the attention of investors, including the return of flows to Bitcoin ETFs.
- Fidelity also observes a rotation in momentum between gold and bitcoin, now driven by institutional investors.
Fidelity believes that bitcoin is entering a new bullish phase
Jurrien Timmer considers that bitcoin is currently evolving in a configuration rarely observed in a bear market.
In a publication, the macroeconomic director of Fidelity explain that “Bitcoin continues to test the neckline of a broad head-and-shoulders pattern, while absorbing its overbought situation without any real price correction”.
Clearly, bitcoin remains close to an important resistance zone while absorbing its overbought situation without a sudden correction.
Several technical elements emerge from the analysis published by Timmer:
- A pattern often considered as a technical reversal signal that is still active;
- A peak identified at $126,251;
- A local low point located at $60,033;
- An ascending channel in place since this rebound;
- A critical zone monitored around $80,500.
The most striking element, however, remains the change in tone adopted by Fidelity. A few months earlier, Timmer still mentioned a potential year of 2026 “boring” for bitcoin. From now on, his speech is clearly closer to a bullish scenario.
“This is typically the behavior observed during the early phases of a bull market”he says. The analysis also fits with other indicators observed on the market, notably the strong tightening of monthly Bollinger Bands, often associated with violent price movements after a long compression phase.
At this stage, Fidelity is not yet talking about euphoria, but the company recognizes that the current behavior of bitcoin no longer corresponds to the classic patterns of running out of steam observed after an overbought phase.
ETFs, gold and institutions: the new face of the bitcoin market
Beyond the graphical analysis, Fidelity highlights a more profound transformation of the market. Momentum leadership appears to be gradually shifting from gold to bitcoin, says Timmer. “Gold is stalling after a strong advance, while bitcoin is now taking over”he explains. This rotation of capital between two assets often considered alternative reserves attracts particular attention from macroeconomic investors. It comes as spot Bitcoin ETFs record new inflows and several institutional players increase their exposure to the crypto market.
This development feeds another reflection carried out by Fidelity Digital Assets: that of bitcoin becoming more mature, more liquid and more integrated into traditional financial markets. In a recent analysis, the company even mentions a possible questioning of the famous four-year cycle historically linked to halving. With a capitalization having reached around $2,500 billion in October 2025, bitcoin would no longer react only to its internal dynamics, but also to major global macroeconomic flows and institutional arbitrage.
If bitcoin now manages to stay sustainably above the $80,000 to $83,000 zone mentioned by several analysts, the market could enter a very different sequence from previous speculative cycles. Growing institutional interest, combined with broader financial adoption via ETFs, could change the speed, scale, and even structure of future BTC bullish movements.
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