FED feverish waiting markets this September 17

This Wednesday, September 17, the American central bank is expected to lower its 25 -point key rate. A decision already integrated by the markets, but far from being trivial, because inflation remains above the target and employment slows down. Behind this monetary inflection, investors are watching for a signal. Ephemeral shock or catalyst for a new cycle? From gold bitcoin, via Wall Street, all the active ingredients scrutinize the verdict of Jerome Powell.

Contrasting economic signals before the decision

While the ECB freezes the rates at 2 %, the latest indicators economics offer a nuanced table before the Fed meeting:

• Inflation: Consumer Price Index increased by 0.4 % in August, which brings annual inflation to 2.9 %. The CORE CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3 %;

• The production price: the PPI fell 0.1 % in August, but remains up 2.6 % over a year, while the basic PPI climbed 2.8 %;

• The job market: only 22,000 non -agricultural positions were created in August, a marked slowdown, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3 %;

• Bond rates: 2 -year yields evolve around 3.56 %, compared to 4.07 % for the 10 years, now a slightly reversed curve.

These elements reflect the complexity of the moment: an inflation that persists, a loss of labor market and a bond dynamic which continues to point out a certain economic fragility. The Fed must arbitrate between the need to support activity and the risk of reviving inflationary tensions.

Bitcoin, gold and actions to the test of a new monetary phase

Beyond macroeconomic figures, investors already observe the concrete consequences of a monetary easing. Indeed, Bitcoin is currently exchanging around 115,880 dollars, set back from its August summit to nearly $ 124,000.

Gold, a refuge value par excellence, remains close to its records at 3,643 dollars an ounce, while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ evolve at historical levels, stimulated by the anticipation of a drop in rates. Risky assets such as Bitcoin and actions could benefit from sustainable support if monetary policy becomes more accommodating.

In addition, the probability of a relaxation is already integrated up to 93 % by markets via term contracts. A disappointing reaction could cause a rapid correction, before the effects of a more flexible policy are felt. For investors, the short term could therefore be synonymous with volatility, while long -term perspectives remain oriented towards an environment more favorable to liquidity.

Between mixed economic figures and already high expectations, the September 17 meeting appears as a major test for the Fed. A rate drop, as Christopher Waller argued, likely Powell successor, could provide sustainable support for financial assets.