Bitcoin and gold are once again moving in tandem, reviving their long-standing comparison as reliable stores of value. Often nicknamed “digital gold,” bitcoin is considered a modern safe haven, much like the precious metal that has served this role for centuries. On Monday, both assets reached new milestones, bitcoin climbed to $126,000, while gold crossed the $4,000 an ounce mark, its all-time high. Market analysts believe that this surge in gold could lay the foundations for a significant rise in bitcoin after its next halving in 2028.
In brief
- Analysts say gold's surge could set the stage for bitcoin to reach half of gold's market capitalization after its next halving.
- Ted Pillows pointed out that the price of bitcoin often follows gold with an eight-week lag and predicts strong gains for Bitcoin in the final quarter of the year.
- Gold has outperformed bitcoin so far this year, even as institutional interest in the cryptocurrency continues to grow.
Analysts Project Bitcoin Potential as Gold Climbs
The price of gold surpassing $4,000 per ounce has pushed its total estimated value to around $27 trillion. According to current projections, many expect the global value of bitcoin to reach about half that of gold by 2028, or about $13.5 trillion.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, said he believes BTC could ultimately reach half the market value of gold after the next halving. He explained that much of gold's value comes from its role as a store of value rather than its use in jewelry or industry.
Similarly, younger investors, particularly in emerging markets, are increasingly turning to bitcoin for this purpose. Based on the current price of gold, he suggested that if bitcoin's market value reached half that of gold, each coin could trade around $644,000.
Meanwhile, another market watcher, Ted Pillows, noted that “BTC has been highly correlated with gold with an 8-week lag. Right now, gold is hitting new highs, which means bitcoin will do the same next. Maybe we will see another correction, but overall the fourth quarter will be important for bitcoin. »
Analysts divided on BTC-Gold balance
While bitcoin continues to attract attention, gold has outperformed it so far this year, up around 50%. The metal's strength has been driven by global economic uncertainty, a weaker U.S. dollar and unpredictable tariff policies, which has bolstered demand for more stable assets. Many investors have turned to gold as a safe haven for their money while markets remain volatile.
Market veteran Peter Brandt believes that gold momentum could continue ahead of any major pullback. He suggested the metal could rise further in the near term, warning that “All-in buyers caught up in FOMO at these levels will need to have deep pockets going forward. »
In contrast, Peter Schiff, a longtime gold supporter and bitcoin critic, downplayed bitcoin's latest rally. Although he acknowledged BTC's recent rise to $126,000, he pointed out that the digital asset remains about 15% below its all-time high when measured against the value of gold. According to Schiff, “Based on where gold currently stands, bitcoin would need to rise to around $148,000 to match its all-time high valued in gold. »
Even though bitcoin remains behind gold, institutions are showing growing confidence in its long-term potential. Deutsche Bank recently predicted that central banks could begin including bitcoin in their reserves within the next five years. Such a move would mark an important turning point in the way traditional financial systems perceive this digital asset. For now, gold remains the world's most trusted store of value, but BTC's momentum continues to grow as it gains acceptance.
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