Bitcoin continues to record records while Ethereum sinks into weakness which is starting to seriously worry the market. In one year, ETH lost more than 35% against BTC, despite the massive return of capital to cryptos. Behind this drop, several alarming signals are emerging: increased selling pressure, increasing ETH reserves on Binance and the growing institutional domination of bitcoin. This dynamic raises a question that has become central to the market: is Ethereum definitively losing its status as leader of altcoins?
In brief
- Ethereum has lost more than 35% against bitcoin in one year despite the return of optimism to the crypto market.
- Analysts are monitoring a technical structure considered worrying, with a risk of further decline for the ETH/BTC pair.
- Several graphic signals recall the configuration observed before the previous major fall of Ethereum against BTC.
- ETH reserves on Binance continue to rise, fueling fears of greater selling pressure.
Ethereum is stuck in a downtrend against bitcoin
The ETH/BTC pair continues to send worrying signals for investors. Indeed, Ethereum is still moving under an active descending trendline since 2022.
It should be noted that the pair suffered a rejection on an important technical zone including the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement as well as the 50-month exponential moving average.
Here is some important elements :
- ETH/BTC shows a drop of more than 35% year-on-year;
- The pair has returned below the 20-month EMA located around 0.034 BTC;
- A potential target towards 0.0176 BTC is mentioned;
- This scenario would still represent almost 40% additional decline;
- The current structure recalls the fall of almost 70% observed between 2024 and 2025.
The scenario is all the more worrying as it recalls a configuration already observed before the previous major drop of Ethereum against bitcoin. This relative weakness comes even as bitcoin continues to attract institutional flows and maintains much more solid momentum in the crypto market. Graphically, analysts are now monitoring ETH's ability to defend its historical supports in order to avoid an acceleration in selling pressure.
ETH Reserves on Binance Fuel Market Fears
Beyond technical signals, several on-chain data reinforce concerns around Ethereum. ETH reserves held on Binance reached 3.62 million ETH, or approximately 24.6% of all ether on exchanges. An increase in reserves on the exchange is often interpreted as a signal of potential selling pressure, with investors moving their assets to the platforms to prepare for possible sales. Conversely, bitcoin reserves continue to decline, a sign that BTC holders are more focused on long-term storage.
This divergence also reflects a profound change in the dominant narrative of the crypto market. Bitcoin now benefits from massive institutional support driven by spot ETFs, corporate treasuries and capital flows from Wall Street.
Ethereum, for its part, seems to be gradually losing the narrative advantage linked to its status as a deflationary asset. This market development is pushing some analysts to question the place that Ethereum will occupy in the coming months compared to bitcoin which has become the reference asset for institutional investors.
What happens next will now depend on Ethereum's ability to rebuild its own dynamics capable of attracting new flows. Technical stabilization could provide a point of support for the market, but the growing dominance of bitcoin is already changing the balance of the sector. If this trend is confirmed, the current cycle could mark a new stage in the hierarchy of cryptos, with BTC more dominant than ever against historical altcoins.
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